WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:19.980 Unknown: Day one. 00:00:19.980 --> 00:00:21.980 Unknown: Oh 00:00:49.979 --> 00:00:51.979 Unknown: Oh 00:01:19.980 --> 00:01:21.980 Unknown: Oh 00:01:49.980 --> 00:01:51.980 Unknown: Oh 00:02:19.979 --> 00:02:21.979 Unknown: Oh 00:02:49.979 --> 00:02:51.979 Unknown: Oh 00:03:19.979 --> 00:03:21.979 Unknown: Oh 00:03:40.459 --> 00:03:47.259 Unknown: Good evening and welcome to the strategic development committee and special board meeting of May 12th 00:03:47.979 --> 00:03:49.139 SPEAKER_13: 2026 00:03:49.139 --> 00:03:53.959 Unknown: This room is equipped with a safety alarm if the alarm sounds 00:03:54.139 --> 00:03:59.859 SPEAKER_13: Please leave in an orderly manner via the exits to the lobby or behind the dais 00:04:00.979 --> 00:04:07.699 SPEAKER_13: Assemble in front of the building and wait to hear the all clear announcement from security 00:04:08.099 --> 00:04:10.099 SPEAKER_13: before re-entering 00:04:10.340 --> 00:04:16.099 Unknown: This meeting is being recorded and can be accessed on smud's website 00:04:16.900 --> 00:04:24.340 Unknown: Please remember to unmute your microphone when speaking in order that our virtual attendees may hear 00:04:24.820 --> 00:04:30.060 Unknown: The microphone will display a green indicator light when the microphone is on 00:04:31.100 --> 00:04:36.860 Unknown: For members of the public attending in person that wish to speak at this meeting 00:04:37.379 --> 00:04:41.420 Unknown: Please fill out a speaker's request form located on the table 00:04:42.020 --> 00:04:46.100 SPEAKER_13: Outside this room and hand it to smud security 00:04:47.379 --> 00:04:53.460 Unknown: members of the public attending this meeting virtually that wish to provide verbal comments 00:04:53.980 --> 00:04:58.900 Unknown: During the committee meeting may do so by using the raise 00:04:59.540 --> 00:05:02.379 Unknown: hand feature in zoom or 00:05:02.939 --> 00:05:07.220 Unknown: By pressing star 9 when dialed into the telephone 00:05:07.540 --> 00:05:11.580 SPEAKER_13: toll-free number at the time public comment is called 00:05:13.060 --> 00:05:20.860 SPEAKER_13: Technical support staff will enable the audio for you when your name is announced during the public comment period 00:05:22.580 --> 00:05:27.220 Unknown: You may also submit written comments by emailing them to 00:05:27.940 --> 00:05:29.940 SPEAKER_13: public comment at 00:05:29.980 --> 00:05:31.980 SPEAKER_13: smud org 00:05:32.939 --> 00:05:37.960 Unknown: Written comments will not be read into the record but will be provided to the board 00:05:38.500 --> 00:05:43.700 SPEAKER_13: electronically and placed into the record of the meeting if the comments are received 00:05:44.300 --> 00:05:47.580 Unknown: within two hours after the meeting ends 00:05:48.540 --> 00:05:52.020 Unknown: Chief legal officer, please conduct the roll call 00:05:52.819 --> 00:05:54.819 Unknown: director fishman here 00:05:55.780 --> 00:05:58.620 Unknown: Director Herbert here chair Samborn 00:05:58.620 --> 00:06:00.620 SPEAKER_12: Director 00:06:01.180 --> 00:06:07.780 SPEAKER_12: Fishman and vice chair her bar present chair Herbert is is absent though. I believe she may be phoning in and remotely 00:06:08.459 --> 00:06:10.459 SPEAKER_12: also present our 00:06:10.459 --> 00:06:13.180 SPEAKER_12: directors Bowie Thompson and Vice President kirth 00:06:14.899 --> 00:06:22.620 Unknown: Okay item number one on tonight's agenda is to provide the board an overview of climate impacts 00:06:23.579 --> 00:06:29.579 SPEAKER_13: Projected for smud's Upper American River project or you are as we like to call it 00:06:30.579 --> 00:06:34.699 SPEAKER_13: Including an update of statewide trends and water management 00:06:35.379 --> 00:06:37.379 SPEAKER_13: highlights from smud's 00:06:37.579 --> 00:06:43.780 SPEAKER_13: 2025 focus study of the you are and a discussion of smud's projects and 00:06:44.660 --> 00:06:49.019 SPEAKER_13: operational measures to address historic and future 00:06:50.180 --> 00:06:52.180 SPEAKER_13: variability and 00:06:52.180 --> 00:06:55.939 SPEAKER_13: so now our presenters will come forward and 00:06:57.819 --> 00:07:00.259 Unknown: We'll get to get some interesting information 00:07:01.340 --> 00:07:05.379 Unknown: All right. Well very good. Good evening and thank you for that introduction vice chair 00:07:06.060 --> 00:07:13.220 SPEAKER_04: Herber so again, my name is Josh line and director of power generation for smud and tonight we get the opportunity to 00:07:13.740 --> 00:07:17.579 SPEAKER_04: Actually through a series of presentations take a look back in time 00:07:17.579 --> 00:07:23.259 SPEAKER_04: But also more importantly look into the future with respect to climate change and those 00:07:23.539 --> 00:07:31.539 SPEAKER_04: Impacts that we can anticipate and that's really done through climate forecasting and modeling as we think about that and that impact to 00:07:31.740 --> 00:07:35.539 SPEAKER_04: Potentially how we operate our hydro assets today part of our you are 00:07:35.979 --> 00:07:42.939 SPEAKER_04: It's really important to acknowledge that those assets are a cornerstone to our energy supply for the last 60 years 00:07:43.180 --> 00:07:48.459 SPEAKER_04: Those have been operating very reliably right meeting our clean clean energy goals 00:07:48.540 --> 00:07:52.100 SPEAKER_04: They've been meeting our affordability goals and of course our reliability goals 00:07:52.339 --> 00:07:55.939 SPEAKER_04: So over that 60 years, of course, we've seen a lot of climate change 00:07:55.939 --> 00:08:01.540 SPEAKER_04: We've seen a lot of impacts to climate change and we've continued to operate those assets very reliably 00:08:01.899 --> 00:08:09.180 Unknown: Right, that's not without a lot of hard work a lot of planning and long-term planning and a lot of I'll say 00:08:09.420 --> 00:08:16.939 SPEAKER_04: Operations and maintenance endeavors whether those are asset improvement projects whether those are just focus on operational practices 00:08:16.939 --> 00:08:21.220 SPEAKER_04: So tonight we get the opportunity to really look forward and understand 00:08:21.220 --> 00:08:25.980 SPEAKER_04: What are those potential changes to our climate and how that may impact our? 00:08:26.300 --> 00:08:29.300 SPEAKER_04: operations of our critical assets that are critical for 00:08:29.980 --> 00:08:36.299 SPEAKER_04: Continuing to serve and meet our zero carbon plan for the future. So let me quickly just walk through the agenda for tonight 00:08:37.059 --> 00:08:41.719 SPEAKER_04: As we think about our presenters the first one, dr. Michael Anderson 00:08:41.719 --> 00:08:46.819 SPEAKER_04: He's the California State climatologist for the Department of Water Resources also with NOAA 00:08:47.339 --> 00:08:54.099 Unknown: Really what dr. Anderson will walk us through is he'll look at what are the big climate change impacts we've seen 00:08:54.099 --> 00:08:56.699 SPEAKER_04: What are some of those trends going into the future? 00:08:56.819 --> 00:09:02.659 SPEAKER_04: How does that really impact kind of our water management at the state level and then also more importantly? 00:09:02.659 --> 00:09:06.339 SPEAKER_04: He'll talk about some new research and tools that really will facilitate 00:09:07.139 --> 00:09:15.579 SPEAKER_04: our operation and collaboration going forward and that continued successful operation of our hydro assets and then we'll transition to dr 00:09:15.579 --> 00:09:19.219 SPEAKER_04: Owen daugherty he's a principal research scientist for Eagle Rock 00:09:19.740 --> 00:09:26.939 SPEAKER_04: Analytics and so as we take a little bit of a zoom-in approach, it's really looking at our hydro assets very specifically in 00:09:27.659 --> 00:09:29.220 SPEAKER_04: 2025 we did 00:09:29.220 --> 00:09:33.620 SPEAKER_04: Conclude a study that really looked at what are the the weather vulnerabilities? 00:09:33.620 --> 00:09:41.620 SPEAKER_04: What are the climate change vulnerabilities looking out to mid century and how might those impact the operations of our units? 00:09:41.700 --> 00:09:49.379 SPEAKER_04: So he'll cover that and some key takeaways for those studies and then we'll get an opportunity to look at really from the operational 00:09:49.500 --> 00:09:55.279 SPEAKER_04: Perspective, how do we manage these variabilities? So our manager of resource optimization Christine Gianini 00:09:55.399 --> 00:10:02.799 SPEAKER_04: Will talk about how we manage the variability every year, right? Every year we see something different in terms of the water year 00:10:03.199 --> 00:10:06.459 SPEAKER_04: This year in particular as you look at you know our snowpack 00:10:07.120 --> 00:10:14.039 SPEAKER_04: You know just last week. Kiso released their planning and resource study for 2026 in that assessment 00:10:14.039 --> 00:10:19.919 SPEAKER_04: They noted that from the water year perspective in the snowpack perspective across the state of California 00:10:19.919 --> 00:10:22.679 SPEAKER_04: We're seeing the second lowest snowpack in recorded history 00:10:23.559 --> 00:10:27.839 SPEAKER_04: Behind 2015 so as we continue to manage these challenges 00:10:27.839 --> 00:10:32.359 SPEAKER_04: It's very important to look to the future acknowledging that there have been challenges 00:10:32.359 --> 00:10:36.199 SPEAKER_04: There has been variability in terms of weather impacts, but looking forward 00:10:36.199 --> 00:10:40.039 SPEAKER_04: We'll continue to see those impacts be more pronounced more frequent 00:10:40.039 --> 00:10:42.279 SPEAKER_04: And so how are we going to manage those going forward? 00:10:42.439 --> 00:10:47.579 SPEAKER_04: And I'll come back to highlight some key projects and initiatives we're looking at in the long term 00:10:47.579 --> 00:10:51.159 SPEAKER_04: So as we look at our long-term planning we look at a decade or more 00:10:51.159 --> 00:10:54.600 SPEAKER_04: What are some of the initiatives and projects we're looking at today that will better 00:10:55.000 --> 00:11:01.519 Unknown: Allow our hydro assets to be more flexible and really weather no pun intended the storms of the future so with that 00:11:01.519 --> 00:11:04.159 SPEAKER_04: I'll turn it over to dr. Michael Anderson. Thank you 00:11:10.600 --> 00:11:12.600 Unknown: All right good evening everybody 00:11:13.000 --> 00:11:15.879 SPEAKER_10: So try and provide a little context here of 00:11:16.759 --> 00:11:20.360 SPEAKER_10: Where we are now to help understand what comes next 00:11:21.620 --> 00:11:23.139 Unknown: and 00:11:23.139 --> 00:11:26.240 SPEAKER_10: All right, so here we go. So let's start with the idea of normal 00:11:26.240 --> 00:11:31.159 SPEAKER_10: so this is how NOAA defines what your current climate is it take 30 years and 00:11:33.100 --> 00:11:36.399 SPEAKER_10: Average it and then so your average climate 00:11:37.959 --> 00:11:41.839 SPEAKER_10: Represents what has happened in the previous 30 years, so I put two of them up here 00:11:41.839 --> 00:11:45.899 SPEAKER_10: I put one at the beginning of the 20th century. Those are the blue dots and 00:11:46.360 --> 00:11:49.179 SPEAKER_10: The triangle is the average of those 30 years 00:11:50.139 --> 00:11:53.099 Unknown: And you see that the blue dots are pretty close to the triangle 00:11:53.099 --> 00:11:56.779 SPEAKER_10: So average is a pretty good guess of what kind of year you're gonna get 00:11:57.500 --> 00:12:00.739 Unknown: now fast forward into the 21st century and we have our 00:12:01.059 --> 00:12:03.759 SPEAKER_10: 1991 to 2020 normal as the 00:12:04.379 --> 00:12:07.679 SPEAKER_10: Diamond there with the squares being the individual years that make it up 00:12:08.419 --> 00:12:11.879 Unknown: Now the little table up in the upper right shows the numbers 00:12:11.879 --> 00:12:16.139 SPEAKER_10: We've warmed about two degrees Fahrenheit on average for California over this time period 00:12:16.980 --> 00:12:19.480 Unknown: Average precipitation is about the same 00:12:20.779 --> 00:12:27.139 Unknown: But the year-to-year values are very different guessing average now is only the first step 00:12:28.580 --> 00:12:33.299 SPEAKER_10: Understanding the variability around average is what becomes much more important 00:12:33.819 --> 00:12:37.620 Unknown: And so want to use that as kind of our starting point for the conversation 00:12:38.659 --> 00:12:41.340 Unknown: Alright, so if you thought the past decade was a little tricky 00:12:41.500 --> 00:12:44.639 SPEAKER_10: You're right, and this is another way to look at it 00:12:44.780 --> 00:12:49.820 SPEAKER_10: So we take all the years in the historical record and we break them into the distribution 00:12:52.540 --> 00:12:58.860 Unknown: From wet to dry warm cold warm and size of snow packs we have three pieces on here 00:12:59.300 --> 00:13:01.300 Unknown: For in the middle of the distribution 00:13:01.500 --> 00:13:08.019 Unknown: This is where our infrastructure was designed. This is where it works. Well, and you saw in history that wasn't a bad guess 00:13:09.019 --> 00:13:11.179 Unknown: Now as you see particularly in the last decade 00:13:12.740 --> 00:13:18.179 Unknown: We don't land there too frequently either with precipitation snowpack and certainly not temperature 00:13:18.939 --> 00:13:24.620 Unknown: It took the epic snowpack of 2023 to get the temperature back into the average range 00:13:25.819 --> 00:13:29.399 Unknown: otherwise, we're really out at the extreme and this gets to the point that 00:13:30.299 --> 00:13:35.819 Unknown: Everything works when you're in the expected range the anomalous range probably got a playbook that can get you through 00:13:36.500 --> 00:13:40.620 Unknown: When you get into the extremes, this is where you're usually working with emergency orders 00:13:41.580 --> 00:13:44.960 SPEAKER_10: Really trying to navigate conditions to get by 00:13:46.180 --> 00:13:48.620 Unknown: When that happens once a decade, that's not a problem 00:13:49.820 --> 00:13:51.820 Unknown: When it's happening almost all the time 00:13:53.220 --> 00:13:57.379 Unknown: This gets a little harder to explain why you're constantly having to seek 00:13:59.540 --> 00:14:01.540 SPEAKER_10: Deviations from the rules to 00:14:02.020 --> 00:14:05.420 SPEAKER_10: Navigate what mother nature is throwing at you, but this is a good graphic to show you 00:14:06.540 --> 00:14:12.060 Unknown: She's really throwing some things at you and just to give you some numbers here from 2012 to 2016 00:14:13.100 --> 00:14:21.300 Unknown: Four years we averaged 33 percent of a normal snowpack over those four years that included the lowest in 2015 at only 5% 00:14:22.460 --> 00:14:26.940 Unknown: But the 33 percent of average is the projection for an end-of-century snowpack 00:14:28.540 --> 00:14:32.180 Unknown: So I tell people you had a practice round it was rough 00:14:33.540 --> 00:14:35.540 Unknown: But it's doable 00:14:36.620 --> 00:14:41.540 SPEAKER_10: Also seven of the ten warmest years in the historical record are on that chart there 00:14:42.340 --> 00:14:48.020 Unknown: They've all happened since 2014 and by the way this year's on pace to break the record of 2015 00:14:48.660 --> 00:14:50.660 Unknown: So we'll set a new 00:14:50.700 --> 00:14:53.220 Unknown: Edge to the temperature distribution this year 00:14:54.660 --> 00:14:58.100 Unknown: All right, so building a water year and this is how I like to walk people through 00:14:58.620 --> 00:15:00.900 SPEAKER_10: Is that there are some things that are still the same? 00:15:01.379 --> 00:15:06.019 Unknown: And it's good to kind of ground ourselves in that notion that we still orbit the Sun 00:15:06.779 --> 00:15:12.980 Unknown: There still has its seasons due to its tilt in the fall. This is when our precipitation onset sets in on 00:15:13.620 --> 00:15:18.220 SPEAKER_10: Average up in Del Norte County. It's October 1 for San Diego County. It's Halloween 00:15:19.019 --> 00:15:24.819 Unknown: So the month of October is on average when our precip starts and we really look for that first storm of the season, right? 00:15:25.620 --> 00:15:30.100 Unknown: Great when it shows up a little bit of a bummer when that drifts into November 00:15:31.139 --> 00:15:35.019 Unknown: In this Southern, California found out a few years ago when it waits till February 00:15:36.419 --> 00:15:38.419 SPEAKER_10: Significant problems develop 00:15:38.860 --> 00:15:44.299 Unknown: But we really look for that onset because that's the chance to start getting the watershed wet and we want the watershed wet 00:15:44.299 --> 00:15:46.299 SPEAKER_10: While that Sun angle is still up there 00:15:47.059 --> 00:15:53.459 Unknown: Because if it waits long enough the first storms end up being snow, but it's snow on a dry watershed 00:15:54.100 --> 00:15:57.579 Unknown: So what you see is a percent snowpack is not going to be 00:15:58.379 --> 00:16:01.980 Unknown: The runoff and that was a significant problem in 2021 00:16:03.980 --> 00:16:09.660 Unknown: So I list some of the things there winter our big three 90 days half our annual precept shows up in this time window 00:16:10.700 --> 00:16:15.820 Unknown: So this is the make or break rounder and we often find it's not wet or dry anymore 00:16:16.500 --> 00:16:20.500 Unknown: there are windows where it is wet and really exciting and 00:16:20.860 --> 00:16:29.100 Unknown: Then the high pressure sets in and it's just another sunny day at a time where we're supposed to be accumulating our water and snow 00:16:30.980 --> 00:16:36.539 SPEAKER_10: Spring late season bailout the miracle March right that happened once in 1991 00:16:37.659 --> 00:16:39.659 SPEAKER_10: We kind of hope for it 00:16:40.220 --> 00:16:45.179 Unknown: Or you get a month like this year where nothing happens and oh by the way 00:16:45.860 --> 00:16:48.539 Unknown: Snow melt decides to get started early 00:16:50.500 --> 00:16:55.559 Unknown: But now we're also finding with warming temperatures. It's not just the wet we have to learn more about the dry 00:16:56.620 --> 00:16:58.620 Unknown: how things dry down and 00:16:59.500 --> 00:17:02.379 Unknown: In the wintertime when it's 68 degrees in the mountains 00:17:04.019 --> 00:17:08.940 Unknown: If it's not raining it's now beginning to dry out so it's a much more dynamic 00:17:09.460 --> 00:17:13.900 Unknown: And start to think of the watershed as a much more dynamic presence now reacting to the weather 00:17:14.299 --> 00:17:17.819 Unknown: Now I say people get we get to April 1 the numbers come in 00:17:18.179 --> 00:17:22.700 Unknown: If they're not what people want the first question they'll ask me well, what about next year? 00:17:23.500 --> 00:17:27.500 Unknown: And after a minor we're still trying to work on getting you a good seasonal outlook 00:17:28.259 --> 00:17:32.099 Unknown: Now multi-year not so good, but even more important is that bottom line? 00:17:33.939 --> 00:17:35.939 Unknown: How different will the next decade be 00:17:36.859 --> 00:17:41.460 Unknown: I'm asking this because in four years in 2030 will have our ten years of data 00:17:41.659 --> 00:17:45.059 SPEAKER_10: No, we'll update the normal. So this will be our first 21st century normal 00:17:45.700 --> 00:17:50.379 Unknown: But 2021 to 2030 is going to replace 1991 to 2000 00:17:51.819 --> 00:17:53.819 Unknown: Temperatures very different 00:17:54.220 --> 00:17:57.819 Unknown: Some precip extremes and snowpack extremes very different 00:17:59.299 --> 00:18:04.139 Unknown: That gets folded into what your average is so in a sense are you ready for that? 00:18:05.899 --> 00:18:10.220 Unknown: And you need to kind of keep that in mind as change becomes more dynamic 00:18:10.700 --> 00:18:16.819 Unknown: All right, so how do we deal with it? Well one we're extremely fortunate to be in, California 00:18:17.740 --> 00:18:24.860 Unknown: And I said it's because the state has for the past decade begun to recognize that it's not just how much total water 00:18:25.660 --> 00:18:32.980 Unknown: But how much managed water capability you have right and the goal then becomes can you get more managed water capability? 00:18:32.980 --> 00:18:34.980 SPEAKER_10: That means you're increasing your benefit and 00:18:35.700 --> 00:18:39.180 Unknown: More and more you're decreasing your hazard at the same time 00:18:40.220 --> 00:18:44.220 Unknown: Because you're trying to tap into the same storms and so that's a hydrograph and just saying 00:18:44.660 --> 00:18:47.980 Unknown: We raise our managed water capability closer to the top of the hydrograph 00:18:48.539 --> 00:18:50.700 Unknown: We're doing both. How do we do that? 00:18:52.259 --> 00:18:59.380 SPEAKER_10: Observations knowing the state of the watershed knowing the state of the river stay the reservoirs what is happening now? 00:19:00.259 --> 00:19:07.420 Unknown: More importantly what's coming those forecasts become really important because they help us get ready for what's coming next 00:19:08.259 --> 00:19:13.620 Unknown: But you can have the coolest observations, and I have some really cool wind profile or data. I can show you 00:19:14.180 --> 00:19:17.820 SPEAKER_10: But if I don't describe it to you. It just looks like some rather interesting artwork 00:19:18.900 --> 00:19:21.640 Unknown: And again the forecast without the right context 00:19:22.180 --> 00:19:27.820 Unknown: Doesn't do you any good. That's why that top bar that helps raise the managed water capability 00:19:27.820 --> 00:19:30.580 SPEAKER_10: It's turning that information into something usable 00:19:31.580 --> 00:19:33.580 Unknown: And as we go through this and change 00:19:34.259 --> 00:19:36.259 SPEAKER_10: having research at the core 00:19:36.900 --> 00:19:41.539 Unknown: It's going to power us through these times where we keep saying well. I haven't seen that before 00:19:42.740 --> 00:19:44.740 Unknown: And to do this I 00:19:44.940 --> 00:19:49.059 SPEAKER_10: Stressed the importance of partnerships, and there are three keys communication collaboration and coordination 00:19:49.900 --> 00:19:52.700 Unknown: Working together we can do this. It's doable 00:19:53.980 --> 00:19:58.259 Unknown: And I know sometimes when it gets really wild it's kind of hard to see that 00:19:59.140 --> 00:20:02.740 Unknown: So this is the other key that I think is just absolutely fabulous 00:20:03.660 --> 00:20:07.539 Unknown: We have a defined physical feature in the atmosphere that delivers our water 00:20:08.940 --> 00:20:15.819 Unknown: Sometimes a whole bunch at once like this storm here. This is the October 2021 storm. That is that black arrow 00:20:16.740 --> 00:20:18.940 Unknown: largest atmospheric River of that water year 00:20:20.380 --> 00:20:23.740 SPEAKER_10: But coming off the second driest year in history what a blessing 00:20:25.059 --> 00:20:31.779 SPEAKER_10: Because things were really looking kind of grim in October 2021 this storm comes through we see rivers 00:20:32.420 --> 00:20:38.740 Unknown: Actually, Sacramento River rose 10 feet on one storm Wow right yeah, but it was almost 00:20:39.539 --> 00:20:46.339 Unknown: You know dry so getting water in there was fabulous unfortunately it didn't really work all the way through but 00:20:46.899 --> 00:20:50.500 Unknown: with our partnership at Scripps understanding the storms understanding the 00:20:51.700 --> 00:20:56.180 SPEAKER_10: Characteristics of these storms how to leverage that knowledge in our forecasts 00:20:56.980 --> 00:21:03.299 Unknown: We can be better water planners and so really excited about this partnership. That's had a decade now and 00:21:04.140 --> 00:21:09.220 SPEAKER_10: Looking forward to our next decade with them to really move forward on some of these ideas 00:21:10.019 --> 00:21:16.180 SPEAKER_10: Including our efforts in forecast and former reservoir operations, which they have been a key partner with our work with the Corps of Engineers 00:21:18.660 --> 00:21:21.620 Unknown: And this is it our research and operations partnership 00:21:21.619 --> 00:21:27.299 SPEAKER_10: So we've spent about a year investing with the Center for Western Weather and Water extremes, and we're not the only ones 00:21:29.059 --> 00:21:35.939 SPEAKER_10: We helped start the center, but right now we're maybe about a third of the funding that comes in for them I 00:21:36.899 --> 00:21:41.579 Unknown: Stressed we want the funding because we want to keep their attention on our interesting problems here 00:21:42.299 --> 00:21:46.179 Unknown: Yes, the West is a big place, but we'd really love to keep them focused on, California 00:21:46.539 --> 00:21:50.819 SPEAKER_10: Because they're really bright people one of the things they have is this really cool catalog 00:21:51.259 --> 00:21:53.740 Unknown: of all the atmospheric River since 1950 00:21:54.500 --> 00:21:58.339 Unknown: year-to-year count a distribution through the year and 00:21:58.700 --> 00:22:03.700 SPEAKER_10: More importantly the direction in which they hit because it's hugely important with the way our mountains are 00:22:04.899 --> 00:22:07.919 Unknown: Storms have come out of the Southwest the good old pineapple expresses 00:22:08.819 --> 00:22:14.279 Unknown: Interact with the mountains in the American Yuba and feather rivers in a much different way than if it's coming up over a ridge 00:22:14.279 --> 00:22:16.279 SPEAKER_10: And it's coming out of the Northwest 00:22:16.319 --> 00:22:18.899 Unknown: The production of the watersheds entirely different 00:22:19.620 --> 00:22:23.900 Unknown: So understanding that and understanding and seeing that the biggest atmospheric rivers tend to hit 00:22:24.740 --> 00:22:27.620 Unknown: From the Southwest and those tend to be the ones we remember 00:22:29.060 --> 00:22:31.060 Unknown: Alright, so I tell people well we have data 00:22:31.500 --> 00:22:36.780 SPEAKER_10: Lots of data and this was developed by a friend at desert research Institute. He's a paleo 00:22:37.620 --> 00:22:41.220 SPEAKER_10: Hydrologist so he loves to layer data, but I really like it because and he called it 00:22:42.019 --> 00:22:44.019 SPEAKER_10: 2017 the subtropical symphony 00:22:44.019 --> 00:22:51.139 Unknown: but it just shows how dynamic things were in that year and 00:22:52.660 --> 00:22:55.900 SPEAKER_10: Really amazing with the number of atmospheric rivers 00:22:56.420 --> 00:23:03.599 SPEAKER_10: The yellow dots are this freezing elevation where rain was turning to snow and looking that it's going from 2000 to 10,000 feet 00:23:03.980 --> 00:23:09.059 SPEAKER_10: Right we're going from Auburn to the top of the watershed where it's raining and 00:23:09.579 --> 00:23:12.500 Unknown: Trying to keep that that track of that through the storm 00:23:12.500 --> 00:23:13.819 SPEAKER_10: And we see with the gray line 00:23:13.819 --> 00:23:19.059 Unknown: Yeah, sometimes when it shoots up and the snowpack dips a little bit as you get some of that rain on snow 00:23:19.380 --> 00:23:23.339 Unknown: But we have information we're learning about it. We're learning about the processes 00:23:24.980 --> 00:23:29.380 SPEAKER_10: Understanding what to look for to help understand how to get the best out of it 00:23:29.380 --> 00:23:33.380 SPEAKER_10: That's why I say what information is available. What's useful? 00:23:34.819 --> 00:23:36.660 Unknown: Sometimes you can get so much data 00:23:36.660 --> 00:23:42.339 Unknown: It loses its utility and then how is it presented the other little rectangle just for reference that was 00:23:42.500 --> 00:23:44.500 SPEAKER_10: the three weeks in 00:23:44.539 --> 00:23:50.019 SPEAKER_10: 2023 those where we essentially had winter we had 46 percent of our annual precip in those three weeks 00:23:50.619 --> 00:23:55.220 Unknown: Kind of exciting 86 percent of a seasonal snowpack developed in those three weeks 00:23:56.180 --> 00:23:57.460 SPEAKER_10: just 00:23:57.460 --> 00:24:00.859 Unknown: Comparing two very wild years in our recent history 00:24:01.740 --> 00:24:03.740 Unknown: All right. So what else? 00:24:03.779 --> 00:24:06.819 Unknown: We don't just stop at the weather forecasting with our friends at scripts 00:24:06.819 --> 00:24:09.819 SPEAKER_10: We're really pushing out into the seas of sub seasonal and seasonal 00:24:10.179 --> 00:24:13.899 Unknown: Really looking at 30 to 90 day window and this is a really cool 00:24:15.740 --> 00:24:19.259 Unknown: Tool that came online this year really looking at the next four weeks 00:24:20.139 --> 00:24:26.299 Unknown: And trying to look at the structure of the atmosphere and match it to one of 16 patterns noting that those 16 patterns 00:24:27.019 --> 00:24:29.939 SPEAKER_10: Correspond to a precip pattern across the Western US 00:24:30.579 --> 00:24:37.339 Unknown: And how dark the purple is is how much many of the global forecast models are agreeing? So if you're in one 00:24:38.339 --> 00:24:40.899 SPEAKER_10: In one of those first four there and they're all there 00:24:42.179 --> 00:24:45.179 Unknown: You can pretty well guess it's going to be another sunny day 00:24:46.220 --> 00:24:52.779 Unknown: Gets a little more exciting when it gets into those around 10 and 12 where oh boy. It's gonna get pretty lively 00:24:54.139 --> 00:24:56.299 Unknown: But this is a way to look beyond 00:24:57.419 --> 00:25:02.859 Unknown: What the River Forecast Center provides in terms of here's the precip we expect and the flows we expect 00:25:03.019 --> 00:25:08.259 Unknown: This gives a little bit of what's on the horizon. I'm pretty excited to see this develop more 00:25:09.740 --> 00:25:12.659 Unknown: Another thing we did recently and this is cool with the Bay Area 00:25:13.459 --> 00:25:17.740 SPEAKER_10: Timbaria counties went in on a single integrated regional water management grant 00:25:18.859 --> 00:25:26.339 Unknown: Saying Doppler radar network wasn't serving them and it wasn't because they have hills and their closest radar are Monterey and 00:25:26.899 --> 00:25:28.419 SPEAKER_10: Davis and 00:25:28.419 --> 00:25:32.419 Unknown: In between Monterey and Davis in the Bay Area are a lot of pretty good sized mountains. So 00:25:33.299 --> 00:25:40.299 Unknown: Doesn't do so good for them. So we built a smaller radar has a smaller footprint X band gives more detail to 00:25:41.419 --> 00:25:43.419 Unknown: Put one in South Bay 00:25:43.579 --> 00:25:49.500 Unknown: one in the East Bay one on Sawyer Ridge on the peninsula and one up in Sonoma County and 00:25:50.379 --> 00:25:55.019 Unknown: Then we got a bigger radar a C band radar coming in between the big Dopplers and these 00:25:55.459 --> 00:25:59.579 SPEAKER_10: That we put in Marin County that can look offshore so they actually can have a little 00:25:59.579 --> 00:26:03.980 SPEAKER_10: Forewarning of what's coming towards them 00:26:04.619 --> 00:26:10.379 Unknown: It's very hard to get observations on the ocean of what's coming in. So this helps with that 00:26:11.099 --> 00:26:15.379 SPEAKER_10: Some really cool products with those forecasts, but the great thing about this 00:26:16.059 --> 00:26:18.059 Unknown: They're upstream 00:26:18.339 --> 00:26:22.539 SPEAKER_10: Meteorologically from you. So this gives you some additional information coming in 00:26:22.539 --> 00:26:28.980 SPEAKER_10: So really kind of a cool feature and not to be outdone our good friends at the Sacramento Area Flood Control Agency 00:26:30.139 --> 00:26:33.919 Unknown: Are wanting to look at a watershed scale effort 00:26:35.539 --> 00:26:40.659 Unknown: To help them with some of the challenges they face and really looking at 00:26:41.220 --> 00:26:45.419 SPEAKER_10: These other initiatives that we've done both with Fero and with AQPI 00:26:46.460 --> 00:26:51.099 Unknown: To see how would that work serving the American River watershed? 00:26:53.179 --> 00:26:57.139 SPEAKER_10: So I've been meeting with them showing off some of the tools we've been developing and 00:26:58.100 --> 00:27:00.259 SPEAKER_10: Seeing if this can help inform 00:27:00.900 --> 00:27:03.100 Unknown: What we do, which is really kind of cool 00:27:03.980 --> 00:27:09.020 SPEAKER_10: Including a public-private partnership. We've been doing over the past few years with a company called Earth Knowledge 00:27:10.020 --> 00:27:12.300 Unknown: these are former USGS scientists who 00:27:13.580 --> 00:27:17.860 Unknown: are taking a USGS model called the Basin Characterization Model and 00:27:19.220 --> 00:27:24.860 SPEAKER_10: We're using it not only to look backwards at a monthly kind of what happened. Here's the state of the watershed 00:27:25.419 --> 00:27:27.419 Unknown: We're trying to couple it to forecasting 00:27:27.939 --> 00:27:29.939 SPEAKER_10: to look 10 days ahead 00:27:30.699 --> 00:27:33.939 Unknown: What's the landscape doing when it suddenly hits a hundred degrees? 00:27:34.939 --> 00:27:36.939 Unknown: How quickly is it drying out? 00:27:38.859 --> 00:27:41.419 Unknown: What is it doing to what's left of the snowpack? 00:27:42.579 --> 00:27:44.579 SPEAKER_10: Still experimental and still 00:27:44.979 --> 00:27:47.459 SPEAKER_10: If we can find the funding about five years off 00:27:48.219 --> 00:27:50.299 Unknown: but a potential tool that I think 00:27:51.299 --> 00:27:57.259 Unknown: Can help not only water management, but broader resource management. So trying to find some partners in the state 00:27:58.299 --> 00:28:00.299 Unknown: To help build that out 00:28:00.379 --> 00:28:03.859 Unknown: All right. Just want to finish because you might have heard in the news 00:28:05.139 --> 00:28:07.139 Unknown: about the potential super-alleluia 00:28:07.700 --> 00:28:11.299 Unknown: So I want to talk about where we've been last this past year was La Nina 00:28:12.500 --> 00:28:16.059 Unknown: La Nina tends to have that up and down circulation 00:28:16.059 --> 00:28:21.220 SPEAKER_10: High pressure is really important because the high pressure says where the air is going north and 00:28:21.700 --> 00:28:23.700 Unknown: The edge of it is where it comes down 00:28:25.179 --> 00:28:27.500 Unknown: This year where it came down was over the Great Lakes 00:28:29.099 --> 00:28:33.179 Unknown: So the Great Lakes in the Northeastern US had a cold snowy winter 00:28:34.019 --> 00:28:38.460 Unknown: They had snow on the ground almost all winter in Boston and New York City. They were not happy 00:28:39.099 --> 00:28:43.059 Unknown: They had gotten used to this notion that they didn't have to do as much snow removal 00:28:43.419 --> 00:28:44.740 Unknown: So 00:28:44.740 --> 00:28:46.940 Unknown: We called it a good old-fashioned winter for them 00:28:47.500 --> 00:28:53.179 Unknown: On our end we're underneath a high pressure. Yeah, not so much happened a few storms snuck through but 00:28:54.179 --> 00:28:56.019 Unknown: for the most part 00:28:56.019 --> 00:29:00.659 SPEAKER_10: Siphon that long duration event around Christmas. We didn't have a whole lot 00:29:02.740 --> 00:29:06.379 Unknown: Now what's coming right so the waters in the tropics warm 00:29:06.380 --> 00:29:10.260 SPEAKER_10: increases the gradient from equator to pole 00:29:10.540 --> 00:29:15.620 Unknown: While that flattens the jet stream it speeds it up much like a river on a steeper gradient. It'll just shoot downhill 00:29:17.740 --> 00:29:20.220 Unknown: What that does is and how far south it gets pushed 00:29:22.180 --> 00:29:24.180 Unknown: Which part of California gets wet 00:29:25.660 --> 00:29:27.660 Unknown: And 00:29:29.460 --> 00:29:34.660 Unknown: So we tend to think of these storms with the jet streams sped up storms click through quick hitters 00:29:35.340 --> 00:29:42.460 Unknown: Timing pace and scale of those then build the impacts on what we get they tend to be warmer 00:29:43.540 --> 00:29:46.340 Unknown: Because they aren't running up and getting cold air 00:29:49.980 --> 00:29:51.700 Unknown: And 00:29:51.700 --> 00:29:56.500 SPEAKER_10: While we can have a year like 1992 which was an only new year kind of a bummer year 00:29:57.259 --> 00:30:01.420 Unknown: We had 1998. Oh my goodness a lot of stuff happening 00:30:01.420 --> 00:30:06.900 SPEAKER_10: What we do know is the coast tends to take a little bit more of a beating 00:30:09.220 --> 00:30:13.380 Unknown: With all that energy just coming straight off the Pacific onto the coast 00:30:13.860 --> 00:30:15.180 SPEAKER_10: Tend to have a little more damage 00:30:15.180 --> 00:30:21.019 SPEAKER_10: So those will be the things to kind of keep track of as we see how this develops a lot of hype now 00:30:21.019 --> 00:30:26.019 SPEAKER_10: But there's still a lot of time to see how this actually manifests once we get back around to winter 00:30:26.700 --> 00:30:31.279 Unknown: But there is a lot of warm water in the subsurface of the tropics 00:30:32.779 --> 00:30:39.220 Unknown: Anyway one last little piece the other piece that hasn't been there when Noah developed their relationships that I just showed you 00:30:40.059 --> 00:30:42.059 Unknown: marine heat anomalies 00:30:42.099 --> 00:30:48.539 Unknown: These have been fun things right and if you think about the first thousand feet of water in the mid-pacific 00:30:48.539 --> 00:30:50.539 SPEAKER_10: warming 00:30:51.420 --> 00:31:00.940 Unknown: Five and a half six degrees Celsius that changes that gradient and so I just say talk to my colleagues 00:31:02.379 --> 00:31:07.079 Unknown: Maybe we should think about what's different between now and the 80s. How would we study it? 00:31:09.619 --> 00:31:11.619 Unknown: How do we use that to shape our expectations 00:31:12.740 --> 00:31:15.619 SPEAKER_10: Saying 1983 is gonna happen again is probably wrong 00:31:16.619 --> 00:31:21.419 Unknown: Because the rest of the world is not like 83 in terms of the climatic setting 00:31:23.219 --> 00:31:25.099 Unknown: So 00:31:25.099 --> 00:31:28.739 Unknown: Just in case you missed it. We're already seeing consequences of a warming world 00:31:29.939 --> 00:31:32.239 SPEAKER_10: And I love this satellite shot of December 00:31:33.739 --> 00:31:35.739 Unknown: Where the valley was fogged in 00:31:35.899 --> 00:31:43.500 SPEAKER_10: But the Sierra Nevada was bright and clear and on this day it was 39 degrees here in Sacramento and 68 degrees in Yosemite Valley 00:31:46.099 --> 00:31:47.459 Unknown: So 00:31:47.459 --> 00:31:53.819 Unknown: Here's the thing and I think Owen gets to describe this. This is only the beginning. This is not the new normal 00:31:54.500 --> 00:31:56.500 Unknown: It amplifies from here 00:31:57.259 --> 00:31:59.779 Unknown: But this is key the right tools 00:32:00.459 --> 00:32:03.219 Unknown: Forming the right actions communicated in the right way at the right time 00:32:04.539 --> 00:32:07.939 Unknown: Can help us navigate this we can do it we can actually thrive 00:32:08.579 --> 00:32:11.059 Unknown: But the key is to make sure we work with our partners 00:32:11.299 --> 00:32:15.259 SPEAKER_10: Especially those folks that we can bring in that new knowledge and bring it online 00:32:15.299 --> 00:32:20.419 SPEAKER_10: I will definitely enhance our opportunities for success. So thank you for your time 00:32:22.619 --> 00:32:28.139 Unknown: Thank you, do we have any questions for dr. Anderson? Yes, go ahead 00:32:30.379 --> 00:32:36.700 Unknown: First of all, thank you and thank you for the optimism. I think that's you know, that's that's good to hear 00:32:37.660 --> 00:32:42.860 Unknown: My question is you know your three keys communication cooperation coordination 00:32:44.019 --> 00:32:48.900 Unknown: How what grade would you give us and I mean us the the general 00:32:49.940 --> 00:32:51.100 SPEAKER_05: population of 00:32:51.100 --> 00:32:58.140 SPEAKER_05: Organizations and people that are concerned with these issues. How well are we doing right now in California? We're doing pretty good 00:32:59.180 --> 00:33:01.340 Unknown: Probably in the C plus B minus category 00:33:02.059 --> 00:33:08.939 Unknown: Which isn't bad, but there is room for improvement and there's more that can be done and I think more opportunity to leverage 00:33:09.859 --> 00:33:13.359 Unknown: Which is why I feel hopeful is that we're doing okay 00:33:13.359 --> 00:33:17.480 SPEAKER_10: But we there's room to do better and as we move into that space 00:33:18.539 --> 00:33:23.019 Unknown: we can keep up with Mother Nature and so my follow-up question is as a 00:33:24.259 --> 00:33:30.139 SPEAKER_05: Board of locally elected generally lay people when it comes to these issues. How can we help? 00:33:31.339 --> 00:33:34.939 SPEAKER_05: Can we lobby Congress for more money for Noah? Yes 00:33:35.579 --> 00:33:42.740 SPEAKER_05: Lobby the governor for more money for the Department of Water Resources those kinds of things those kind of things help. Yes without a doubt 00:33:43.740 --> 00:33:48.179 Unknown: You know, I talked about what my friends at Noah could be doing and right now I kind of have to help them 00:33:48.740 --> 00:33:50.740 Unknown: Well, let's make sure they still exist 00:33:51.459 --> 00:33:55.839 SPEAKER_10: It arguments changed. Unfortunately about talking with the chief 00:33:56.639 --> 00:34:02.740 SPEAKER_10: Scientist at Noah. He said I'm in a really odd place. My job is to bring science to the benefit of people 00:34:03.359 --> 00:34:07.679 SPEAKER_10: But I'm also in the executive branch whose position it is is that this isn't needed 00:34:09.239 --> 00:34:11.239 Unknown: Thank you 00:34:12.519 --> 00:34:14.519 Unknown: Other questions 00:34:14.519 --> 00:34:16.519 SPEAKER_13: Yes 00:34:18.759 --> 00:34:20.759 SPEAKER_09: Discursion right we 00:34:20.760 --> 00:34:24.800 SPEAKER_09: Say this I'm all gonna get it right typically with a lot of Nina you get I want to say colder 00:34:25.200 --> 00:34:28.520 Unknown: Yes, better winter, right and now Nina is drier 00:34:30.040 --> 00:34:33.340 Unknown: Typically that the tip of an instant that if I have that right 00:34:34.000 --> 00:34:36.000 Unknown: It's a lot to take in. I 00:34:36.280 --> 00:34:39.820 Unknown: Don't feel like in terms of my lay living my day-to-day life 00:34:39.880 --> 00:34:42.760 SPEAKER_09: They say this but I never really noticed that 00:34:43.320 --> 00:34:49.520 SPEAKER_09: Climatic variation over the preceding six months. I sort of will reno this the warm waters here this year 00:34:50.199 --> 00:34:54.000 SPEAKER_09: But it doesn't how much that do you see an actual sort of correlation to that? 00:34:54.400 --> 00:34:58.920 Unknown: So again, we live with wild variability, right El Nino can be 00:34:59.840 --> 00:35:05.639 SPEAKER_10: Your five of a six-year drought or it can be one of the wettest years in history 00:35:07.079 --> 00:35:09.159 SPEAKER_10: So really wet dry is hard to tell 00:35:10.000 --> 00:35:14.900 Unknown: What we look for is during El Nino. We probably don't have too many frost warnings 00:35:15.900 --> 00:35:22.300 Unknown: But during lining you if that cold air is leaking down from the north, that's when we get those cold December nights 00:35:23.460 --> 00:35:29.539 SPEAKER_10: Especially after a storm in the sky is just beautifully clear and there's nothing to hold the heat in 00:35:30.099 --> 00:35:32.099 Unknown: We can get a lot colder 00:35:34.019 --> 00:35:38.860 Unknown: What I also point out is that we tend to see more on the coast 00:35:41.700 --> 00:35:43.840 SPEAKER_10: So when you're watching the news and you're watching 00:35:45.139 --> 00:35:51.460 SPEAKER_10: Storms batter the coast and coastal erosion and unfortunately some of the houses falling, you know down the cliffs 00:35:51.980 --> 00:35:54.559 SPEAKER_10: You'll see more of that coverage this coming winter 00:35:55.860 --> 00:35:58.099 SPEAKER_10: The other really challenging piece 00:35:59.059 --> 00:36:05.619 Unknown: Is with El Nino and with the warm waters and currently there is some really warm water off the south coast of the state 00:36:06.220 --> 00:36:08.900 SPEAKER_10: that changes the whole food web in the ocean and 00:36:08.900 --> 00:36:14.619 SPEAKER_10: Unfortunately that creates really big challenges for a lot of the marine life 00:36:14.940 --> 00:36:19.139 SPEAKER_10: So you're hearing maybe now about some pelicans that are just not finding food 00:36:21.340 --> 00:36:26.860 Unknown: We'll also find sea lions and some of the mammals will struggle with that as we work through the year 00:36:27.579 --> 00:36:29.980 SPEAKER_10: And that's because that warm water kind of caps 00:36:30.660 --> 00:36:33.500 Unknown: The upwelling that usually happens on our coast 00:36:34.139 --> 00:36:38.900 Unknown: The other problem with that is without that cold water coming up. Here's less coastal fog 00:36:39.900 --> 00:36:41.900 Unknown: less coastal fog more heating 00:36:42.420 --> 00:36:45.460 Unknown: greater energy demand for those folks that 00:36:46.539 --> 00:36:50.019 Unknown: Normally get the benefit of a little bit of an umbrella from the Sun 00:36:52.739 --> 00:37:01.300 Unknown: Do you see you talked about that weather regime tool and was the 16 the 16 different potential tools or 00:37:01.300 --> 00:37:05.620 SPEAKER_09: What's the proper word? We call them weather regimes 00:37:08.860 --> 00:37:12.580 Unknown: And so what it is is the group here went through 00:37:14.580 --> 00:37:22.620 SPEAKER_10: Reanalysis data which is a computer model recreation of the past 50 years of weather data and it's a whole atmosphere of 00:37:24.060 --> 00:37:26.060 SPEAKER_10: information and they took 00:37:26.699 --> 00:37:31.699 Unknown: What are called geo potential height patterns that kind of control where the winds blow and 00:37:33.219 --> 00:37:37.860 SPEAKER_10: They came up with what they identify as a 16 principal patterns 00:37:38.539 --> 00:37:42.460 SPEAKER_10: and so they took every day and they mapped it to one of these and 00:37:43.659 --> 00:37:50.619 Unknown: They built their history and that's what provides kind of your expectations in terms of where it rains and where it doesn't 00:37:50.699 --> 00:37:52.699 SPEAKER_10: Then 00:37:52.900 --> 00:37:57.500 Unknown: They look at the forecast model of that same field and say which one is it and 00:37:58.219 --> 00:38:02.940 Unknown: That then is informing what kind of the big picture expectation should be 00:38:03.420 --> 00:38:08.299 Unknown: Do you think this will change is this going to change or changing how forecasting works? 00:38:08.299 --> 00:38:13.500 SPEAKER_09: I think it'll help us get out to where we get more reliable week two information 00:38:13.500 --> 00:38:17.219 SPEAKER_10: And can actually give us a sense in week three and four 00:38:18.139 --> 00:38:24.739 SPEAKER_10: Not exactly what's going to happen, but we can actually start to pay attention to how things are changing in that time frame 00:38:25.339 --> 00:38:31.059 Unknown: which can help us either say oh look relief might be starting to take shape or 00:38:32.539 --> 00:38:38.539 Unknown: We shift from well, we're wet, but it's really going to dry out. So I think those kind of things learning how to use the information 00:38:40.019 --> 00:38:42.299 Unknown: Is where we're going to be at over the next decade 00:38:42.460 --> 00:38:46.220 SPEAKER_09: No, you look at a forecast the models always want to return things to normal. So 00:38:46.740 --> 00:38:53.140 SPEAKER_09: You go to the 10-day forecast or 14 days. Oh, it's gonna be dry even though you know, we're in a wet pattern, right? 00:38:53.900 --> 00:38:59.180 SPEAKER_09: So it this is again. So you you look at what the models are 00:38:59.700 --> 00:39:04.880 SPEAKER_10: Saying you look at the observations and we look and see where you have 00:39:05.820 --> 00:39:10.180 SPEAKER_10: Agreement and where you have disconnects. So it's not just taking the model output and saying 00:39:11.019 --> 00:39:17.179 Unknown: This is the forecast you still have that human in the loop looking at it and saying does this make sense? 00:39:17.299 --> 00:39:19.299 SPEAKER_10: Do we have a coherent? 00:39:21.059 --> 00:39:25.579 SPEAKER_10: Forecast that we can present to folks and give them the right expectations 00:39:30.579 --> 00:39:37.699 Unknown: Um, so then would that mean that they're not going to get the right expectations, I mean 00:39:38.699 --> 00:39:41.419 SPEAKER_13: What what I'm hearing you say is that 00:39:42.980 --> 00:39:47.259 Unknown: This is the way things are right now, but hey if we all 00:39:48.500 --> 00:39:51.819 SPEAKER_13: Cooperate and work together we can get through this tough time 00:39:52.699 --> 00:39:54.859 Unknown: but 00:39:54.859 --> 00:39:57.419 Unknown: Isn't I mean this is now 00:39:58.299 --> 00:40:04.859 Unknown: when you project out with the fact that we're building less renewables that 00:40:05.460 --> 00:40:08.660 SPEAKER_13: There isn't a focus like there used to be on 00:40:09.700 --> 00:40:11.700 SPEAKER_13: combat and climate change. I 00:40:11.980 --> 00:40:18.780 Unknown: Mean, don't you think that we're that's a significant disruption. Yeah. Okay. Yes 00:40:18.780 --> 00:40:21.980 SPEAKER_13: Okay, but that's why I said we're lucky to be in, California 00:40:23.140 --> 00:40:29.180 SPEAKER_10: Because we're still in a place that still says I see what's happening. Mm-hmm 00:40:29.180 --> 00:40:33.940 SPEAKER_13: I say and we're willing to be now. It's great when you have your federal partner on board with you 00:40:34.300 --> 00:40:36.300 Unknown: It's a lot easier to do 00:40:37.780 --> 00:40:44.159 Unknown: But I think it's important that as a state we still focus on what's important to us and 00:40:44.860 --> 00:40:49.420 SPEAKER_10: Try and leverage the fact that we are one of the larger economies in the world. Mm-hmm 00:40:49.460 --> 00:40:56.420 SPEAKER_13: That doesn't make sense. But what is scary to me is the fact is this is the way it is now and 00:40:57.460 --> 00:41:03.179 SPEAKER_13: When you start projecting into the future with the actions that are being taken now 00:41:03.179 --> 00:41:10.159 SPEAKER_13: It becomes even more critical that we pay attention to how we're living on this planet. Yes 00:41:10.179 --> 00:41:15.460 SPEAKER_10: I fully agree. Well, thank you very much. Anybody else have any 00:41:16.339 --> 00:41:18.919 Unknown: Final questions? No. Thank you very much. We really 00:41:19.980 --> 00:41:21.980 SPEAKER_13: appreciated your 00:41:21.980 --> 00:41:23.980 SPEAKER_13: Presentation dr. Anderson. Thank you 00:41:33.379 --> 00:41:38.339 Unknown: Hi and good evening. My name is Owen Doherty 00:41:38.339 --> 00:41:46.500 SPEAKER_07: I'm a climate scientist here in Sacramento with Eagle Rock analytics and as Josh mentioned smud sponsored a 00:41:47.339 --> 00:41:52.539 SPEAKER_07: Assessment of its overall climate vulnerability to a number of climate hazards and today I'll be speaking 00:41:53.339 --> 00:41:55.339 SPEAKER_07: just a little bit about 00:41:55.579 --> 00:42:00.779 SPEAKER_07: Changes in the hydrological conditions in the upper American River that came out of that study 00:42:00.780 --> 00:42:03.260 SPEAKER_07: which is much broader than what I'm presenting today and 00:42:03.860 --> 00:42:10.019 SPEAKER_07: I won't I won't wait till the end to tell you what the key takeaways from from that work was 00:42:11.100 --> 00:42:13.780 SPEAKER_07: You know our top finding is 00:42:14.460 --> 00:42:19.340 SPEAKER_07: Please expect changes in when precipitation is occurring in the you are 00:42:19.780 --> 00:42:23.660 SPEAKER_07: We're gonna see shifts in the seasonality of when the rain and snow is coming a little bit 00:42:24.420 --> 00:42:30.019 SPEAKER_07: Our study found that it doesn't seem like there's gonna be a big change in the number of days in which 00:42:30.340 --> 00:42:32.340 SPEAKER_07: precipitation is occurring 00:42:32.739 --> 00:42:36.099 SPEAKER_07: But the amount of precipitation that occurs is likely to change 00:42:37.340 --> 00:42:39.340 SPEAKER_07: consistent with what dr. Anderson showed 00:42:40.139 --> 00:42:45.340 SPEAKER_07: Snowpack has been reduced and we expect further reductions towards mid and end of century and 00:42:46.059 --> 00:42:50.739 SPEAKER_07: What we found was that the lowest elevations of the u-r we're gonna see the largest 00:42:51.300 --> 00:42:56.579 SPEAKER_07: Decline and the upper elevations would be a little more resilient and lose a little bit less snowfall 00:42:57.219 --> 00:43:02.779 SPEAKER_07: And that reduction in snowfall doesn't happen equally across the whole season 00:43:02.940 --> 00:43:08.380 SPEAKER_07: We're seeing that in the fall very large declines in in this total snow 00:43:08.380 --> 00:43:12.699 SPEAKER_07: That's gonna come winter decreases a little bit and then the spring decreases a little bit 00:43:12.940 --> 00:43:15.659 SPEAKER_07: Suggesting we might have a much narrower period of snowpack 00:43:16.420 --> 00:43:22.519 SPEAKER_07: Even if there are you know some peaks and valleys within it. So that's I guess I can stop there. Thank you 00:43:23.480 --> 00:43:29.280 SPEAKER_07: No, I'll share the details. I'll keep it as light as I can but that's that's the key key thing. So 00:43:30.119 --> 00:43:32.119 SPEAKER_07: this study took 00:43:32.880 --> 00:43:37.119 SPEAKER_07: output from California's fifth climate change assessment as dr. Anderson 00:43:38.719 --> 00:43:41.619 SPEAKER_07: Introduced California is producing quite a bit of climate data 00:43:42.119 --> 00:43:50.599 SPEAKER_07: The state is updated their their climate projections and smud is the was the first utility in the state to utilize it as far as I'm aware 00:43:51.599 --> 00:43:57.199 SPEAKER_07: The figure on the left shows the model coverage and the figure on the right is our study domain 00:43:57.199 --> 00:43:59.360 SPEAKER_07: which includes not only the service territory, but 00:44:00.039 --> 00:44:06.339 SPEAKER_07: Areas where smud is key assets and the u-r is there and with our older little basins in the light red squiggles 00:44:06.839 --> 00:44:09.099 SPEAKER_07: Just give you a sense of the type of information we have 00:44:10.639 --> 00:44:15.039 SPEAKER_07: In this presentation, I'm going to show you two types of 00:44:15.960 --> 00:44:21.679 SPEAKER_07: regimes some climate models are predicting a much wetter future and some suggest a 00:44:22.159 --> 00:44:27.699 SPEAKER_07: Drier future and that's because California's hydro climate has a lot of variability 00:44:27.699 --> 00:44:34.079 SPEAKER_07: It goes from wet to dry and the climate change signal on top of that can nudge it in certain directions 00:44:34.079 --> 00:44:37.759 SPEAKER_07: But we still do see the wet and dry futures as possibilities 00:44:38.480 --> 00:44:40.480 SPEAKER_07: and 00:44:41.440 --> 00:44:44.039 Unknown: To help ground this work 00:44:44.039 --> 00:44:50.880 SPEAKER_07: I wanted to to mention a little bit about how how we looked into the future and what we kind of compared it to 00:44:52.039 --> 00:44:57.000 SPEAKER_07: Trying to keep this work consistent with what the UN is doing at the IPCC 00:44:57.280 --> 00:45:05.880 SPEAKER_07: And what our most recent national climate assessment did along with CPU sees guidance for sort of best practices of climate science and energy planning 00:45:06.200 --> 00:45:11.200 SPEAKER_07: We took a global warming level framework approach it tries to get away from 00:45:12.119 --> 00:45:15.440 Unknown: These pathways of how much you know coal is 00:45:15.920 --> 00:45:21.360 SPEAKER_07: Kenya burning how much solar is China installing its away from those pathways and instead 00:45:21.720 --> 00:45:26.160 SPEAKER_07: Focuses on what will the climate be when the whole earth is two degrees warmer? 00:45:26.160 --> 00:45:30.240 SPEAKER_07: What will the climate be when it's a one and a half degrees warmer and in this study? 00:45:30.799 --> 00:45:39.239 SPEAKER_07: We consider the historical baseline sort of our past when the infrastructure was built to occur at about point eight degrees Celsius of warming 00:45:39.239 --> 00:45:42.839 SPEAKER_07: And that happened that's that was most likely happening at 2002 00:45:43.239 --> 00:45:48.719 SPEAKER_07: Then we this you'll see a lot of figures that refer the next ten years and that refers to a world 00:45:48.719 --> 00:45:53.719 SPEAKER_07: Which is 1.5 degrees warmer, which we think will that threshold be crossed about? 00:45:54.119 --> 00:46:00.439 SPEAKER_07: 2030 2031 and then the last little bit of comparison we did was looking at the middle of the century 00:46:01.319 --> 00:46:04.879 SPEAKER_07: Which is about two degrees of warming and we think that'll happen 00:46:05.480 --> 00:46:10.919 SPEAKER_07: Somewhere around 2047, but you could think about it 2050 really so that's sort of the basis for this study 00:46:10.919 --> 00:46:14.319 SPEAKER_07: And also lots of figures that refer to the next ten years and mid-century 00:46:14.480 --> 00:46:22.119 SPEAKER_07: And these are the time points that I'm sort of referring to as we go along so our first finding changes in the seasonality of precipitation 00:46:23.079 --> 00:46:29.480 Unknown: Again, we're going to show figures that have on the left side the wet futures and on the right side the dry futures 00:46:31.599 --> 00:46:38.759 Unknown: The reason why we thought it would be helpful to look at wet and dry futures side by side was for a utility company 00:46:39.359 --> 00:46:41.819 Unknown: Planning for the future you hear things like well 00:46:41.819 --> 00:46:47.299 SPEAKER_07: It could be what or it could be drier and it's very difficult to make decisions different difficult to push forward 00:46:47.620 --> 00:46:55.120 SPEAKER_07: But if we look at a wet future and a dry future and the changes that we are seeing the trends that we're seeing are the 00:46:55.120 --> 00:47:01.100 SPEAKER_07: Same direction and the same type of shift we can be really confident that that's a change that's gonna happen and be impactful 00:47:01.100 --> 00:47:03.960 SPEAKER_07: And then when they diverge when you know the wet is going 00:47:04.780 --> 00:47:05.580 SPEAKER_07: I'm sorry 00:47:05.580 --> 00:47:06.820 SPEAKER_05: I just wanna be sure I'm 00:47:06.820 --> 00:47:13.060 SPEAKER_05: Orienting myself correctly with the map that you've got up there now the the circled area that it's on both of those maps 00:47:13.500 --> 00:47:18.659 Unknown: The the blue that's just to the right of that that's that's Tahoe that's Lake Tahoe. Yes, that's right 00:47:18.659 --> 00:47:25.539 SPEAKER_07: That's like and then and then the the the water at the very far bottom left corner is at San Francisco Bay 00:47:25.539 --> 00:47:28.559 SPEAKER_05: That's right. Yeah. Okay, you got it. You're oriented. I needed to scale 00:47:30.299 --> 00:47:36.460 SPEAKER_07: Thank you. So yeah, we're looking from Lake Tahoe to the Bay and from just north of Stockton up to 00:47:36.460 --> 00:47:38.460 SPEAKER_07: I don't know Yuba City or so 00:47:38.460 --> 00:47:40.460 SPEAKER_07: Maybe a little further north 00:47:40.460 --> 00:47:45.159 SPEAKER_07: And the circled area the circles area is the area where we saw the largest change in 00:47:45.740 --> 00:47:49.800 SPEAKER_07: precipitation and that corresponds with the highest elevations of the you are so that's where we see the 00:47:49.820 --> 00:47:54.659 SPEAKER_07: The biggest the biggest chance both in absolute as I'm showing here and on a percentage basis 00:47:54.659 --> 00:47:59.380 SPEAKER_07: So, you know on the wet models, we do see a greening, you know more precipitation generally 00:47:59.380 --> 00:48:02.579 SPEAKER_07: But it's focused on those higher elevations and in the drying 00:48:02.579 --> 00:48:07.539 SPEAKER_07: It's sort of the same thing a general drying with the largest decrease happening at high elevation 00:48:07.900 --> 00:48:09.900 Unknown: So 00:48:10.420 --> 00:48:16.019 SPEAKER_07: A lot of times we like to break down sort of these large annual average things into seasons 00:48:16.019 --> 00:48:18.019 SPEAKER_07: So you understand sort of when the changes are coming? 00:48:19.059 --> 00:48:22.900 SPEAKER_07: Here we made the complex these figures are even more complicated to 00:48:23.500 --> 00:48:25.860 SPEAKER_07: struggle with understanding late at night 00:48:26.699 --> 00:48:30.420 SPEAKER_07: but the figures show from the top left winter to 00:48:31.180 --> 00:48:35.860 SPEAKER_07: Then right spring then down to fall and then over to summer 00:48:36.099 --> 00:48:41.340 SPEAKER_07: So you can see in the wet models that during the winter time we're seeing a big 00:48:42.059 --> 00:48:46.019 Unknown: Increase in precipitation in the center of the wet season 00:48:46.019 --> 00:48:52.019 SPEAKER_07: So in December January and February and then in the spring and in the summer saying in the fall even in the wet miles 00:48:52.019 --> 00:48:55.220 SPEAKER_07: We're not really seeing a big increase in precipitation a little bit 00:48:55.459 --> 00:49:01.259 SPEAKER_07: Whereas with the dry models you'll see a drying that's that's spread across all the seasons relatively equally 00:49:01.299 --> 00:49:06.099 SPEAKER_07: So this is a example where you know our models are looking at different regimes 00:49:06.099 --> 00:49:09.939 SPEAKER_07: But showing you know very different insight that if we're in a drier future 00:49:10.019 --> 00:49:15.379 SPEAKER_07: It's gonna be spread over the a lot of the season rather than just focused on the center of the winter 00:49:15.379 --> 00:49:21.279 SPEAKER_07: Like our increases in precipitation would be so key impacts coming from this is again 00:49:21.280 --> 00:49:23.040 SPEAKER_07: There's lots of future outcomes 00:49:23.040 --> 00:49:28.280 SPEAKER_07: We we can learn things despite the fact that there's some variability in the the wetter future 00:49:28.280 --> 00:49:35.160 SPEAKER_07: We're looking at the peak increase in winter and then for the drier future that drying spread out now 00:49:35.160 --> 00:49:37.000 SPEAKER_07: I will say this precipitation 00:49:37.000 --> 00:49:40.720 SPEAKER_07: Analysis I'm showing here includes both snow and rain and kind of mixed together 00:49:41.040 --> 00:49:46.160 SPEAKER_07: We'll tease out the snow in a couple minutes so you can focus it on that separately 00:49:46.159 --> 00:49:51.039 SPEAKER_07: Another key finding is that the changes in extreme precipitation 00:49:51.039 --> 00:49:55.319 SPEAKER_07: So heavy precipitation are driving a lot of the overall changes that we see 00:49:56.319 --> 00:50:01.759 SPEAKER_07: And to understand that we wanted to look at the number of days in which precipitation was happening 00:50:02.359 --> 00:50:07.879 Unknown: In our wet model we see by mid-century an increase in the number of rainy days of 00:50:08.159 --> 00:50:11.719 SPEAKER_07: Over most of the Sacramento area about zero to one day 00:50:11.719 --> 00:50:15.759 SPEAKER_07: It's not a lot in the you are up you're seeing two to three more days with precipitation 00:50:15.919 --> 00:50:20.239 SPEAKER_07: And in the dry models we're seeing a decrease of zero to one days 00:50:20.239 --> 00:50:25.679 SPEAKER_07: And then the you are maybe one or two days with less precipitation and that's telling us yeah 00:50:25.679 --> 00:50:29.919 SPEAKER_07: There's some slight changes here, but really the number of storm events that are expected aren't 00:50:30.519 --> 00:50:34.000 Unknown: Changing that much, but the total amount of rainfall that's coming out of them is 00:50:34.759 --> 00:50:36.759 SPEAKER_07: Which is a very interesting finding 00:50:37.560 --> 00:50:40.720 SPEAKER_07: If we look at extreme precipitation trying to find 00:50:41.440 --> 00:50:45.160 SPEAKER_07: Precipitation events in which the rates were were quite high 00:50:45.960 --> 00:50:50.680 SPEAKER_07: Relative to an average storm we see in the wet models 00:50:50.680 --> 00:50:58.240 SPEAKER_07: We see again this this pattern that the upper elevations of the you are we're seeing a increase in the number of heavy rain days 00:50:58.240 --> 00:51:02.760 SPEAKER_07: And then in the dry we're seeing a big decrease in the number of dry days 00:51:03.640 --> 00:51:05.320 SPEAKER_07: Occurring up there, so 00:51:05.320 --> 00:51:13.480 Unknown: maybe the number of storms that are coming are changing, but it's these really these heavy heavy rain heavy snow days where we might see 00:51:14.240 --> 00:51:17.200 SPEAKER_07: Shifts and we might see new patterns emerging 00:51:17.880 --> 00:51:19.880 SPEAKER_07: so key impacts 00:51:20.760 --> 00:51:26.920 SPEAKER_07: The overall change in number of precipitating days is modest we we are expecting a similar number of storms 00:51:27.080 --> 00:51:31.160 SPEAKER_07: It might be that the types of storms that come in change in a wet regime 00:51:31.159 --> 00:51:34.679 SPEAKER_07: We're going to have bigger wetter atmospheric rivers 00:51:35.119 --> 00:51:42.000 SPEAKER_07: Typically those are associated with high wind in the Sacramento area and are damaging to infrastructure in the drier future 00:51:42.000 --> 00:51:48.239 SPEAKER_07: We may see the same number of storms, but storms that feature less heavy rain and snow events 00:51:48.879 --> 00:51:54.279 SPEAKER_07: And these changes in extremes are really driving whatever changes we see in the average values 00:51:55.639 --> 00:51:58.000 Unknown: Snowfall everyone's most favorite topic 00:51:58.679 --> 00:52:00.280 SPEAKER_07: in 00:52:00.280 --> 00:52:02.159 Unknown: the Upper American River 00:52:02.159 --> 00:52:05.760 SPEAKER_07: The change in snowfall really depends on where you are 00:52:06.480 --> 00:52:12.239 SPEAKER_07: In the Sierra so in the foothills this is this is showing the percent change 00:52:12.800 --> 00:52:14.519 SPEAKER_07: Just a couple models 00:52:14.519 --> 00:52:18.880 SPEAKER_07: This is again by mid century so in the foothills. We're seeing big reductions in 00:52:19.800 --> 00:52:23.800 SPEAKER_07: Annual average snow accumulation, but as you get higher up 00:52:24.760 --> 00:52:29.640 SPEAKER_07: Those reductions decrease and in some cases maybe at the highest peaks. We'd see a little bit more snow 00:52:30.519 --> 00:52:32.600 SPEAKER_07: Sent to occur in the the water models 00:52:35.800 --> 00:52:41.720 Unknown: The question often comes up, you know, when should we start expecting these changes to come in and they already have 00:52:42.519 --> 00:52:45.420 SPEAKER_07: Really, we're already seeing warmer winters with 00:52:46.000 --> 00:52:48.000 SPEAKER_07: less snow and earlier 00:52:48.039 --> 00:52:49.360 SPEAKER_07: snowmelt 00:52:49.360 --> 00:52:54.200 SPEAKER_07: The bottom left figure shows the change we're expecting in the next 10 years relative to the past 00:52:55.000 --> 00:53:01.200 SPEAKER_07: And so you're seeing a decrease in the foothills of maybe about 20% of the annual snowfall 00:53:01.200 --> 00:53:03.200 SPEAKER_07: But at high elevations, that's a lot lower 00:53:03.880 --> 00:53:09.160 SPEAKER_07: If you fast forward to mid century and we're expecting about two degrees of warming by then 00:53:09.880 --> 00:53:16.920 SPEAKER_07: We're looking at very large reductions in annual snowfall even extending up into the higher elevations in excess of you know 00:53:17.119 --> 00:53:19.280 SPEAKER_07: decreases of 40% in the foothills and 00:53:20.079 --> 00:53:22.079 SPEAKER_07: near Placerville 00:53:22.920 --> 00:53:24.200 SPEAKER_07: We 00:53:24.200 --> 00:53:30.320 SPEAKER_07: Redid the analysis instead breaking it down by specific reservoir in the urp to try to give a little bit more information 00:53:30.480 --> 00:53:33.680 SPEAKER_07: And the results are really consistent with what I said earlier 00:53:34.240 --> 00:53:38.000 SPEAKER_07: You know, if you look at a low elevation reservoir like the chyli bar 00:53:39.000 --> 00:53:45.840 SPEAKER_07: You see big reductions if you look at the higher elevation reservoirs like Buck Island or Loom Lake 00:53:46.000 --> 00:53:52.800 SPEAKER_07: You're seeing much much reduced losses in snowfall. So again, the elevation is driving it 00:53:54.000 --> 00:53:59.720 Unknown: This is a really complicated figure and I'm sorry for presenting it at 7 o'clock at night, but 00:54:01.039 --> 00:54:03.400 SPEAKER_07: It tells a great story. So again here 00:54:03.400 --> 00:54:08.480 SPEAKER_07: we're looking at different reservoirs within the urp the bottom panel is showing the fall season and 00:54:09.000 --> 00:54:13.280 SPEAKER_07: I just draw your attention to that that in both wet and dry regimes 00:54:13.280 --> 00:54:16.840 SPEAKER_07: We're seeing major declines in our fall 00:54:17.880 --> 00:54:19.320 SPEAKER_07: snowfall 00:54:19.320 --> 00:54:25.760 SPEAKER_07: If you move up a little bit and I were looking at spraying we're seeing some sizable decreases and then you move into winter 00:54:25.760 --> 00:54:28.240 SPEAKER_07: We saw our smallest decreases in snowfall 00:54:28.360 --> 00:54:32.240 SPEAKER_07: So we're really losing the snowfalls on what's called the shoulder season the edge 00:54:32.480 --> 00:54:40.120 SPEAKER_07: the early onset of the season and the late and so that would suggest a much shorter time period the year where we have a 00:54:40.280 --> 00:54:42.280 SPEAKER_07: robust snow snowpack 00:54:42.840 --> 00:54:44.840 Unknown: Bringing it all together 00:54:45.360 --> 00:54:47.360 Unknown: You know, we're seeing 00:54:47.560 --> 00:54:49.000 SPEAKER_07: statistically significant 00:54:49.000 --> 00:54:50.120 SPEAKER_07: projected 00:54:50.120 --> 00:54:51.560 SPEAKER_07: declines in snowfall 00:54:51.560 --> 00:54:57.600 SPEAKER_07: Across all of the urp regardless of wet and dry the largest difference is happening at your lower elevations 00:54:59.200 --> 00:55:03.240 Unknown: Each reservoir system will see kind of differing amounts, but again based on elevation 00:55:03.760 --> 00:55:10.240 Unknown: It's not a uniform reduction in the snowpack again. It's really this fall declines. That's that that is the largest 00:55:10.679 --> 00:55:14.939 SPEAKER_07: And you could see a potential modest increase at the highest elevations 00:55:16.000 --> 00:55:18.000 SPEAKER_07: But that's small relative 00:55:18.799 --> 00:55:22.679 SPEAKER_07: To the overall change and also just in water volume up there 00:55:23.119 --> 00:55:25.359 Unknown: So again, this was part of a much larger study 00:55:25.359 --> 00:55:28.000 SPEAKER_07: I focused on the urp today because that's what I was asked to do 00:55:28.000 --> 00:55:34.239 SPEAKER_07: I know there's some questions about wildfire also and smud transition transmission lines exposure to them 00:55:35.239 --> 00:55:41.839 SPEAKER_07: Our study looked at changes in extreme heat and changes in wind and from that you can you can start to understand 00:55:42.399 --> 00:55:47.799 SPEAKER_07: What the risks are. So if you imagine a forest system that's having earlier snow melt 00:55:48.599 --> 00:55:52.319 SPEAKER_07: And a shorter snow cover season, it's gonna start drying out earlier 00:55:53.039 --> 00:55:58.119 SPEAKER_07: The top row is telling us the the kind of changes in extreme heat that we'll be seeing 00:55:58.559 --> 00:56:01.839 SPEAKER_07: I'll note that the largest temperature increases across 00:56:02.480 --> 00:56:05.680 SPEAKER_07: Areas of interest are happening at the highest elevation the urp 00:56:05.800 --> 00:56:10.260 SPEAKER_07: So this is an area where we're going to see the largest changes in moisture 00:56:10.539 --> 00:56:16.000 Unknown: The largest increases in heat and that combination will lead to more wildfire 00:56:16.720 --> 00:56:17.880 SPEAKER_07: risk 00:56:17.880 --> 00:56:19.240 SPEAKER_07: unfortunately 00:56:19.240 --> 00:56:22.960 SPEAKER_07: We don't see major changes in extreme wind which is fortunate for us 00:56:24.600 --> 00:56:27.920 SPEAKER_07: Again wrapping things up when we think about the urp 00:56:28.720 --> 00:56:32.800 SPEAKER_07: There's gonna be changes in when precipitation occurs the number of days with precipitation 00:56:32.800 --> 00:56:36.599 SPEAKER_07: We expect to remain the same but the amount of precipitation will likely change 00:56:37.320 --> 00:56:41.320 Unknown: snowpack will be reduced and that's amplified at the lowest elevations and 00:56:43.200 --> 00:56:48.820 SPEAKER_07: This combination of increasing heat and decreases in precipitation are gonna increase 00:56:49.200 --> 00:56:54.000 SPEAKER_07: Wildfire risk and that's all I've got actually I've got a lot more. I just wanted to spare you 00:56:54.440 --> 00:57:02.400 SPEAKER_07: Well, thank you, dr. Dole for tea anybody have any questions? Yes, director Brandon when you were looking at some of the 00:57:02.880 --> 00:57:10.239 SPEAKER_09: Related the wildfire as you look at any like forest moisture levels, which are sort of precursors to fire the large wildfires 00:57:10.400 --> 00:57:11.360 SPEAKER_09: Yes 00:57:11.360 --> 00:57:13.199 SPEAKER_07: We did not in this study do this 00:57:13.199 --> 00:57:20.960 SPEAKER_07: But the most recent chapter of California's fifth climate change assessment is looking at that in the Sierra and they are 00:57:21.400 --> 00:57:23.480 SPEAKER_07: projecting large declines in 00:57:24.320 --> 00:57:26.039 SPEAKER_07: vegetated 00:57:26.039 --> 00:57:28.039 SPEAKER_07: moisture and also soil moisture 00:57:28.920 --> 00:57:36.199 SPEAKER_07: Particularly looking into May and if I remember like October November where areas where they saw big big reductions a 00:57:38.599 --> 00:57:40.599 Unknown: Little bit curious 00:57:40.840 --> 00:57:44.559 SPEAKER_09: Any commoner we actually look at our stuff because it's us 00:57:45.360 --> 00:57:49.360 SPEAKER_09: Does this pattern follow across the entire Sierras? 00:57:49.360 --> 00:57:54.599 SPEAKER_09: Are there parts of the Sierras that that were not sort of in tools are the same as this and and then did you see any? 00:57:55.640 --> 00:58:02.400 SPEAKER_09: Variability relative like the Mojave Desert where there's so much solar being developed. That's a that's a really really good question 00:58:04.039 --> 00:58:07.940 Unknown: There was a paper that came out just a week ago that looked at changes in different 00:58:08.519 --> 00:58:10.519 SPEAKER_07: basins up and down the Sierra 00:58:10.800 --> 00:58:14.519 SPEAKER_07: The northern and central Sierra behaved very differently than the southern Sierra 00:58:14.679 --> 00:58:19.599 SPEAKER_07: So you would see differences if you looked at the southern end versus areas to the north 00:58:20.280 --> 00:58:26.239 SPEAKER_07: I'm I couldn't really speak to the details of it, but I know you would have to look differently from where you are 00:58:27.239 --> 00:58:29.079 SPEAKER_07: in terms of 00:58:29.079 --> 00:58:31.079 SPEAKER_07: changes in solar 00:58:31.199 --> 00:58:32.280 SPEAKER_07: production 00:58:32.280 --> 00:58:39.599 SPEAKER_07: The CEC did sponsor some research which took these same models and ran them through energy production models generation potential 00:58:40.079 --> 00:58:44.239 SPEAKER_07: Looking at changes in wind and solar and I do not believe there were appreciable changes in the Mojave 00:58:45.159 --> 00:58:48.199 SPEAKER_07: but there were my understanding is 00:58:49.880 --> 00:58:51.880 SPEAKER_07: increases in 00:58:52.159 --> 00:58:55.820 SPEAKER_07: extreme heat periods coincident with low wind production 00:58:56.960 --> 00:58:59.639 SPEAKER_07: Through the the passes which I couldn't name off the top of my head 00:58:59.639 --> 00:59:05.039 SPEAKER_07: But I know from driving around there that you go between the desert basins. There are those large wind installations 00:59:05.280 --> 00:59:09.380 SPEAKER_07: So there could be some secondary effects even if the solar production doesn't change 00:59:09.380 --> 00:59:17.380 SPEAKER_07: Any other questions? Yes, director Fishman. I 00:59:18.579 --> 00:59:24.099 SPEAKER_13: Think part of what I'm hearing is that on any given year. We're gonna see some pretty wild swings and 00:59:27.099 --> 00:59:32.660 Unknown: To some degree the effects of those swings are compounding right so if you have a big snowpack 00:59:33.659 --> 00:59:38.000 Unknown: It I mean it's gonna last longer not only because there's more snow 00:59:38.019 --> 00:59:44.379 SPEAKER_05: but because it has its own kind of insulating and refrigeration effect and conversely when you have a dry year less snow it 00:59:45.179 --> 00:59:51.539 SPEAKER_05: dissipates very quickly less runoff because it's soaking into the ground instead of running off and and so 00:59:52.139 --> 00:59:57.699 Unknown: The the in terms of our operations the way we run our power plants. We have to be able to manage those 00:59:58.659 --> 01:00:02.159 Unknown: Those wild swings year to year. That's absolutely correct. Yes 01:00:05.179 --> 01:00:09.259 SPEAKER_07: Unfortunately, well, thank you for the cheery presentation I 01:00:10.579 --> 01:00:16.139 SPEAKER_13: Get that a lot. We do appreciate the study and having this information 01:00:17.859 --> 01:00:20.279 Unknown: And then next I think Christine 01:00:23.019 --> 01:00:25.339 Unknown: More question real quick. Sorry Christine 01:00:26.300 --> 01:00:31.940 SPEAKER_09: So sort of as I was looking through the slides one of the things that I was curious about is what is normal today? 01:00:31.940 --> 01:00:38.079 SPEAKER_09: Right because we have this wet regimes and these dry regimes the malls are showing if you've seen this variability, but 01:00:38.620 --> 01:00:39.860 SPEAKER_09: things 01:00:39.860 --> 01:00:44.260 SPEAKER_09: Looking past in my own life, which is from a climate perspective isn't that long, right? 01:00:45.780 --> 01:00:53.620 SPEAKER_09: It's always been extremely variable that these relatively these are these I guess what's the question like are we seeing basing more? 01:00:54.099 --> 01:00:56.699 SPEAKER_09: variability these you know zero to four days 01:00:57.259 --> 01:01:02.000 SPEAKER_09: Per year versus what we've already been seeing that historical record. Is that what it's saying? 01:01:02.739 --> 01:01:05.420 SPEAKER_07: Yeah, and to answer your question, you know in this study 01:01:05.420 --> 01:01:11.519 SPEAKER_07: We chose a 30 year climatology window when we considered these these windows, which is traditional 01:01:11.519 --> 01:01:18.059 SPEAKER_07: So you look over 30 so you do qualify as I mean a full climate suite behind you but 01:01:18.859 --> 01:01:20.900 SPEAKER_07: The I mean to answer your question 01:01:20.900 --> 01:01:27.940 SPEAKER_07: very the increase in variability is sort of the California water story and climate story is 01:01:29.139 --> 01:01:36.300 SPEAKER_07: You know, yes, we have this underlying trend, but things are also shaking more around that that trend line 01:01:36.820 --> 01:01:42.420 SPEAKER_07: And that's just a really hard thing for resource managers to handle 01:01:42.900 --> 01:01:46.599 SPEAKER_07: Because you're not just dealing with a new climate regime, but one that flip-flops back and forth 01:01:47.500 --> 01:01:49.660 SPEAKER_07: Sometimes somewhat violently. Thank you 01:01:50.900 --> 01:01:59.619 Unknown: Hello, I'm Christine Giannini. I'm the manager of resource optimization and smud's energy trading contracts department 01:01:59.619 --> 01:02:02.740 SPEAKER_01: And I feel like your last question really covers everything and I can just 01:02:07.820 --> 01:02:13.139 Unknown: It really is on point for exactly what I am going to talk to you guys about which is smud's operations and 01:02:13.380 --> 01:02:19.240 SPEAKER_01: How this variability and this climate shifting has been impacting us with a couple looks at some historical years 01:02:20.119 --> 01:02:24.079 Unknown: Variability is something as we've all seen is inherent within our system 01:02:24.079 --> 01:02:29.439 SPEAKER_01: It's something we've been experiencing for years and this graphic is a report that we love we do it every year 01:02:29.439 --> 01:02:36.419 SPEAKER_01: And it's an accumulation of all of our historical data for cumulative precipitation at fresh pond each color 01:02:36.919 --> 01:02:40.299 SPEAKER_01: coordinates to a water year and this is the last 60 years of data from 01:02:40.759 --> 01:02:47.159 SPEAKER_01: 1965 up until the present and we have the current year even on there and it just shows how much variability we see in 01:02:47.359 --> 01:02:49.359 SPEAKER_01: precipitation over our watershed 01:02:49.839 --> 01:02:51.839 Unknown: Every single year and in all of history 01:02:52.199 --> 01:02:56.699 SPEAKER_01: We have our driest year on there from 1977 and then up to the wettest year in 01:02:56.960 --> 01:03:00.899 SPEAKER_01: 2017 so recently that I think we've made mention of in the other presentations 01:03:00.960 --> 01:03:06.239 SPEAKER_01: But the really interesting thing about the graph and it shows that extreme variability that we keep talking about is that 01:03:06.920 --> 01:03:09.679 SPEAKER_01: 2015 was a third dry year in a row 01:03:09.679 --> 01:03:14.199 SPEAKER_01: So it was a critically dry year to smud and that bleep from 2015 01:03:14.359 --> 01:03:20.319 SPEAKER_01: Two years later up to our wettest year on record that just highlights these extreme variability that we're seeing within our system 01:03:20.599 --> 01:03:23.399 Unknown: So how do we manage that as a resource owner? 01:03:24.079 --> 01:03:29.079 Unknown: There's really key dimensions to variability that we have to think about as we handle Hydra operations 01:03:29.079 --> 01:03:35.199 SPEAKER_01: We're thinking of the four key dimensions of variability being inner annual variability 01:03:35.719 --> 01:03:41.639 Unknown: intra annual variability the precipitation form variability and the system and constraint variability 01:03:42.480 --> 01:03:47.559 Unknown: So first up we have inter annual variability and this is a look at how much water do we get each year? 01:03:47.559 --> 01:03:51.879 SPEAKER_01: And as many of the highlight or many of the presentations have highlighted that amount can vary 01:03:52.279 --> 01:03:58.519 Unknown: Greatly year-over-year and not just being great variations year-over-year. We're also experiencing 01:03:59.039 --> 01:04:04.759 SPEAKER_01: An unknown so each year is kind of like a blank slate the past doesn't dictate the future in California 01:04:04.759 --> 01:04:07.139 SPEAKER_01: So as we manage water throughout the year 01:04:07.139 --> 01:04:10.719 SPEAKER_01: It's all about our storage levels and where are we sitting with what water we have in storage? 01:04:10.879 --> 01:04:16.719 SPEAKER_01: Going into a new year. We have to ensure that that storage level is at a place where no matter what comes into our water 01:04:16.719 --> 01:04:23.959 SPEAKER_01: system we're going to handle our system reliably and safely and so this graph shows the last 16 years of 01:04:24.559 --> 01:04:26.199 Unknown: Total runoff into the ur 01:04:26.199 --> 01:04:32.719 SPEAKER_01: But you can see how there's big swings up and down in those bars each bar represents a year's worth of total runoff and along 01:04:32.879 --> 01:04:36.359 SPEAKER_01: The graph the yellow dots is where our end of water year 01:04:36.360 --> 01:04:43.840 SPEAKER_01: So September 30th storage level was and there's a consistency we see in that end of water your storage level that just speaks to how 01:04:44.240 --> 01:04:51.200 SPEAKER_01: operationally we handle this big variance and we set ourselves up with that blank slate going into the next year to be able to handle the 01:04:51.200 --> 01:04:52.280 SPEAKER_01: system 01:04:52.280 --> 01:04:55.320 Unknown: again reliably and really safely year-over-year and 01:04:56.559 --> 01:04:59.720 Unknown: Then the next kind of variability that we're handling within the ur 01:04:59.720 --> 01:05:05.760 SPEAKER_01: Is the intra annual variability and this digs into the water year in itself and not just the variability that we don't know how much 01:05:05.760 --> 01:05:06.800 SPEAKER_01: Water we're getting that year 01:05:06.800 --> 01:05:12.720 SPEAKER_01: But when are we going to get that water into our system and it and it can swing up and down even within the same type 01:05:12.720 --> 01:05:18.960 SPEAKER_01: Of water year and that's where those extremes of atmospheric rivers and singular storms and then very dry months come into play 01:05:19.600 --> 01:05:24.760 Unknown: So this graph for you and we pulled three recent below normal. So I think 01:05:25.400 --> 01:05:27.480 Unknown: Director Rose asked about what is average? 01:05:28.040 --> 01:05:33.140 SPEAKER_01: First most water said a lot of times we refer to a below normal water years. What might be average? 01:05:33.139 --> 01:05:39.019 SPEAKER_01: So I wanted to look at three years that could be what we might say our average if we had such a thing within 01:05:39.739 --> 01:05:41.659 Unknown: within water and 01:05:41.659 --> 01:05:42.739 SPEAKER_01: hydrology 01:05:42.739 --> 01:05:46.900 SPEAKER_01: but 2022 2024 and 2026 are each of those monthly bars of 01:05:47.579 --> 01:05:49.579 SPEAKER_01: total runoff into some adds Europe 01:05:49.779 --> 01:05:55.179 SPEAKER_01: You are and then the line going up the graph is our cumulative runoff throughout the water year 01:05:55.179 --> 01:05:58.139 SPEAKER_01: And it's really interesting looking at 2022 October 01:05:58.139 --> 01:06:02.699 SPEAKER_01: You can see just how varied it was that month alone from 2022 01:06:02.739 --> 01:06:05.980 SPEAKER_01: You get this huge slug of water right into the system right away 01:06:05.980 --> 01:06:11.059 SPEAKER_01: And then in this year 2026, it was minimal handleable 01:06:11.059 --> 01:06:18.019 SPEAKER_01: There wasn't a ton of water coming in and we're making operational decisions around this variability we face and that's one of those short-term 01:06:18.099 --> 01:06:24.219 SPEAKER_01: Forecasts they become very important understanding. Where should our storage levels be? What does the storm going to really impact? 01:06:24.219 --> 01:06:28.739 SPEAKER_01: And so this is a variability that's driven a lot by those short-term forecasting 01:06:29.739 --> 01:06:30.739 Unknown: and 01:06:30.739 --> 01:06:33.459 Unknown: Then the precipitation form variability 01:06:33.459 --> 01:06:39.980 SPEAKER_01: Which is the big conversation topic a lot about our snowpack and snowpack is pivotal to smud's hydro operations 01:06:39.980 --> 01:06:43.939 SPEAKER_01: It's a great asset and what we might even consider our largest reservoir 01:06:43.939 --> 01:06:48.699 SPEAKER_01: It sits there and it waits and it usually gives us a slow yield when it exists 01:06:49.099 --> 01:06:55.739 SPEAKER_01: It can really swing how we operate our system based on how much snowpack we're actually getting for getting a high snowpack 01:06:55.779 --> 01:07:00.259 SPEAKER_01: We have a lot of confidence heading into the summer and we have to really manage how our storage is set up 01:07:00.419 --> 01:07:06.299 Unknown: Prior to that snowpack melt if we don't have a snowpack we have to think about how are we going to get into our summer? 01:07:06.419 --> 01:07:10.859 SPEAKER_01: Operations, how are we going to ensure reliability through the heat we may face or any? 01:07:11.539 --> 01:07:14.219 Unknown: Other system constraints come the summer months, you know 01:07:14.219 --> 01:07:19.739 SPEAKER_01: It's when our peak hits us and we want to ensure we have the strength of the hydro system behind us when we head into 01:07:19.739 --> 01:07:22.379 SPEAKER_01: Those summer months, so there's a graphic here. That's really cool 01:07:22.379 --> 01:07:25.179 SPEAKER_01: And it's kind of a case study on what's happening this year 01:07:25.299 --> 01:07:32.459 SPEAKER_01: Which is a very interesting year and a very variable year highlighting just how much that climate shifting is affecting variability on the top graph 01:07:32.459 --> 01:07:38.619 SPEAKER_01: We have our storage reservoir levels for the water year along with the capacity of the Europe storage 01:07:38.619 --> 01:07:43.539 SPEAKER_01: Which is the yellow line it shifts based on winter capacity ratings and summer capacity ratings 01:07:43.539 --> 01:07:48.420 SPEAKER_01: We have some dam safety certification that reduces capacity through the winter months where we open gates 01:07:48.420 --> 01:07:51.860 SPEAKER_01: And then the gates are closed again on April 2nd to allow for more storage 01:07:52.500 --> 01:07:59.059 Unknown: along that same graph we have the cumulative runoff into storage for our reservoirs and 01:08:00.019 --> 01:08:05.119 Unknown: Run off into all of the reservoirs not just the storage and then the graph underneath is our snowpack levels 01:08:05.139 --> 01:08:09.019 SPEAKER_01: I chose three years this time because I wanted to really illustrate what's happening in 2026 01:08:09.179 --> 01:08:13.300 SPEAKER_01: There's a wet year in 2023 a below normal year in 01:08:13.739 --> 01:08:19.899 SPEAKER_01: 2024 and then our current year which is also classified as a below normal year right now on the orange line 01:08:19.899 --> 01:08:24.579 SPEAKER_01: So that green line of 2023 a wet year when we look at all three graphs 01:08:25.380 --> 01:08:31.659 SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of consistency between 2026 and 2023 as a wet year up until we hit snowpack 01:08:32.100 --> 01:08:36.460 Unknown: so our runoff into the reservoirs were very similar between the wet year and 01:08:37.260 --> 01:08:43.420 SPEAKER_01: This year below normal and then our just runoff into the system as a whole was also very similar 01:08:43.420 --> 01:08:46.460 SPEAKER_01: You can see that orange line tracked with the green white year 01:08:46.460 --> 01:08:51.340 SPEAKER_01: And then we came into our snowpack graph, and it is just dismal 01:08:51.899 --> 01:08:55.819 SPEAKER_01: Comparative we have what would be considered really a critically dry snowpack 01:08:56.420 --> 01:09:00.779 SPEAKER_01: And and you can see as the cumulative runoff matches to the wet year 01:09:00.779 --> 01:09:03.260 SPEAKER_01: We're really gonna hit a plateau and these next few months 01:09:03.260 --> 01:09:07.380 SPEAKER_01: We've already lost all of our snowpack the only snowpack remaining is at that high elevation 01:09:07.380 --> 01:09:13.640 SPEAKER_01: And it's really just a dot and sitting just barely on our snow sensor. There's not really anything else around it 01:09:14.100 --> 01:09:19.119 SPEAKER_01: So it just it is a great case study looking at this year of how that variability 01:09:19.420 --> 01:09:23.380 SPEAKER_01: Impacts how we operate and the really interesting thing about this year is how much planning 01:09:23.659 --> 01:09:25.539 Unknown: Went into that snow melt in early March 01:09:25.539 --> 01:09:30.159 SPEAKER_01: And we had to look at our storage reservoir levels and we planned ahead and we stored that water 01:09:30.519 --> 01:09:33.639 SPEAKER_01: Knowing we would have to hit those summer months and you can see that orange line 01:09:34.119 --> 01:09:39.119 SPEAKER_01: Deviated from the green and we had to put a more into storage right at the top there and hold it longer 01:09:39.479 --> 01:09:43.880 Unknown: Because we weren't sure of those longer-term forecasts and how much would show up in April 01:09:43.880 --> 01:09:47.340 SPEAKER_01: And I know someone mentioned Miracle March and we always joy joke in our group 01:09:47.340 --> 01:09:52.559 SPEAKER_01: Are we gonna get a Miracle March maybe an awesome April? It seems like a lot more we start wishing for the awesome April 01:09:53.199 --> 01:09:56.039 SPEAKER_01: Because we don't experience as much of the Miracle March anymore 01:09:56.039 --> 01:09:58.880 SPEAKER_01: And so that variability is something that really comes into 01:09:59.519 --> 01:10:02.000 SPEAKER_01: managing that form of precipitation and 01:10:02.519 --> 01:10:06.159 Unknown: then the fourth key dimension that we're facing in hydro operations is 01:10:06.519 --> 01:10:13.159 SPEAKER_01: System and constraint variability and this is really a backbone of variability within hydro operations. This happens regardless of 01:10:14.039 --> 01:10:18.000 Unknown: What's happening with the hydrology? It's not just a single 01:10:18.800 --> 01:10:21.720 SPEAKER_01: Objective, but it's all of these system limitations playing together 01:10:22.320 --> 01:10:26.780 Unknown: To determine how we're going to have variability within the system. That's outages that might happen 01:10:26.800 --> 01:10:30.619 SPEAKER_01: It's our first license requirements and how they adjust based on water your type 01:10:30.640 --> 01:10:37.079 SPEAKER_01: It's safety considerations for the environment in the community as we provide recreation and it's the physical limitations 01:10:37.079 --> 01:10:44.360 SPEAKER_01: we have canals and we have tunnels and we have storage gates and we have spillways and all of that has to be considered on 01:10:44.360 --> 01:10:47.480 SPEAKER_01: top of the fact that the climatology is shifting and 01:10:48.079 --> 01:10:55.159 Unknown: So our hydro system already is experiencing a great deal of variability and we are finding ways to manage around that variability and to deal with 01:10:55.159 --> 01:10:56.479 SPEAKER_01: these extreme 01:10:56.479 --> 01:11:00.719 Unknown: extreme movements we're seeing and the bounds being pushed by the climate shifting 01:11:01.079 --> 01:11:07.439 Unknown: The operations that we thought were just variable in the past are being pushed beyond the variability that we were used to seeing and 01:11:07.559 --> 01:11:09.719 Unknown: They're singular events. They're intra 01:11:10.359 --> 01:11:16.039 SPEAKER_01: intra-annual inter-annual all of the variability we've come to handle it brings new complexities new risks 01:11:16.039 --> 01:11:21.920 SPEAKER_01: but we remain flexible and we continue to operate the system in such a way that we can ensure reliability and 01:11:22.920 --> 01:11:24.920 SPEAKER_01: constant 01:11:24.960 --> 01:11:28.479 Unknown: And that's all I have if anyone has any question, okay any questions 01:11:31.079 --> 01:11:33.079 Unknown: Yes director fishman 01:11:33.359 --> 01:11:35.439 Unknown: Thank you. This is also 01:11:35.880 --> 01:11:39.239 Unknown: You know a relatively optimistic kind of said, okay 01:11:39.239 --> 01:11:44.640 SPEAKER_05: Yes, it's the things are going crazy, but we know they're going crazy and we can manage that because my question and I 01:11:46.039 --> 01:11:54.039 Unknown: For Paul and other senior staff here. Do we need to rethink the way that we manage our rate stabilization funds based on this 01:11:55.279 --> 01:11:57.199 SPEAKER_05: extreme 01:11:57.199 --> 01:12:02.680 SPEAKER_05: Circumstances that we're saying and and you know, it's based on precipitation, but that that isn't necessarily 01:12:04.239 --> 01:12:09.680 Unknown: That's the right number to look at if we're talking about how it how it affects our operations and 01:12:10.399 --> 01:12:14.920 SPEAKER_05: and I'm wondering do we do we need to to rethink the way we 01:12:15.800 --> 01:12:19.440 Unknown: When how we put money into the rate stabilization fund when I we take money out 01:12:20.440 --> 01:12:25.119 Unknown: Yep. So this is something that we actually look at. We always look at really how much will these 01:12:25.720 --> 01:12:30.319 SPEAKER_08: Generation hydro generation that we can actually expect from our you know from our reservoirs, right? 01:12:30.319 --> 01:12:32.520 SPEAKER_08: Because each drop water runs through the multiple reservoirs 01:12:32.680 --> 01:12:37.239 SPEAKER_08: So we always actually do a forecast in terms of based on the precipitation that we have 01:12:37.560 --> 01:12:42.079 SPEAKER_08: Based on the snowpack that we have and the reservoir level coming into the year 01:12:42.199 --> 01:12:46.119 SPEAKER_08: Then we actually look at all those and say well this look like it's gonna be a normal year or 01:12:47.119 --> 01:12:51.960 SPEAKER_08: As far as about changing the rate stabilization fund a hydro space legislation fund 01:12:51.960 --> 01:12:57.979 SPEAKER_08: we always actually calculating that if you remember how we actually just adjusted our commodity because the 01:12:58.720 --> 01:13:04.180 SPEAKER_08: Volatility of the market has changed so much and we're recommended to the board that we need to change it to increase it 01:13:04.239 --> 01:13:08.039 SPEAKER_08: so when the time comes that when we actually see the changes is sustained and 01:13:08.119 --> 01:13:11.600 SPEAKER_08: We need to go ahead and change the level of funding that we put into it 01:13:11.600 --> 01:13:13.159 SPEAKER_08: We'll probably go back to the board 01:13:13.159 --> 01:13:17.380 SPEAKER_08: but right now she said it was really interesting right now is that the number of days of 01:13:17.880 --> 01:13:23.779 SPEAKER_08: Presentations not changing and even if you look at the numbers the number of the inches that we have is not changing out much 01:13:24.000 --> 01:13:25.560 SPEAKER_08: but the promise is that 01:13:25.560 --> 01:13:31.479 Unknown: when it comes in and then does have do you have any snowpack coming in behind that because you can have the number of 01:13:31.479 --> 01:13:35.880 SPEAKER_08: Inches of rain but and if you have a huge snowpack and you see in a couple of those examples 01:13:35.880 --> 01:13:38.900 SPEAKER_08: So that's really what we're trying to look at right now is that when you combine? 01:13:39.119 --> 01:13:45.079 SPEAKER_08: The inches of rain that you get and there's no pack the feet of that you have and and when did it last? 01:13:45.079 --> 01:13:48.480 SPEAKER_08: Yeah, did it come in right during the winter and then all sudden by March? 01:13:48.480 --> 01:13:51.279 SPEAKER_08: They're all gone because it doesn't last right that's what we're looking at 01:13:51.279 --> 01:13:56.840 SPEAKER_08: So the team is actually constantly looking at that to see we need to adjust the dollar amount that we have on there 01:13:56.920 --> 01:13:58.920 SPEAKER_08: Okay. Thank you 01:13:59.960 --> 01:14:03.480 Unknown: Well Christina I I want to say that I am very 01:14:04.159 --> 01:14:10.039 SPEAKER_13: Glad that we have so many people watching this because it is pretty complex 01:14:11.000 --> 01:14:13.439 SPEAKER_13: But I wanted to ask a little bit about 01:14:14.719 --> 01:14:19.759 SPEAKER_13: Are you our system like how long do you think that will? 01:14:20.559 --> 01:14:23.539 SPEAKER_13: Continue to function as an asset for smud 01:14:26.639 --> 01:14:31.279 Unknown: I'm gonna have to defer that question. I think that would be a Josh. Yeah 01:14:33.479 --> 01:14:35.479 SPEAKER_13: We brought them out 01:14:37.319 --> 01:14:42.759 SPEAKER_02: It's actually a great segue, you know, our FERC license goes out to 2064 01:14:43.559 --> 01:14:48.079 SPEAKER_04: Generally when you think of hydro assets or hundred-year assets, you know 2064 01:14:48.399 --> 01:14:51.719 SPEAKER_04: Puts us at right about a hundred hundred two for our oldest 01:14:52.359 --> 01:14:59.079 SPEAKER_04: Hydro assets, so that's what we're planning to today, right? It's well beyond our 2030 plan. It's really a foundational 01:14:59.840 --> 01:15:03.119 SPEAKER_04: Energy supply asset will continue to leverage into the future 01:15:03.640 --> 01:15:10.680 SPEAKER_04: And this is why this work in these endeavors that we do in terms of long-term planning and forecasting are so critical 01:15:10.680 --> 01:15:12.680 SPEAKER_04: Especially to our hydro assets 01:15:15.159 --> 01:15:17.800 Unknown: Go ahead director. Yes. Yeah, I 01:15:18.920 --> 01:15:21.439 SPEAKER_09: Wrote this up down before it just came out of your mouth. I was gonna ask 01:15:22.079 --> 01:15:25.760 SPEAKER_09: One how do we see in terms of lower? 01:15:26.640 --> 01:15:29.280 SPEAKER_09: Acre acre feet in like Union Valley 01:15:29.280 --> 01:15:35.400 SPEAKER_09: I don't know Loon Lake up on my head, but but we rarely see Union Valley below we never see below 50% of its capacity 01:15:36.000 --> 01:15:37.239 SPEAKER_09: I 01:15:37.239 --> 01:15:42.079 Unknown: Guess I'd be curious to get into my head better. What's that sensitivity analysis before? 01:15:42.079 --> 01:15:47.079 SPEAKER_09: Hey the reservoir is gonna start dropping below these certain thresholds that we historically see and 01:15:47.440 --> 01:15:51.600 Unknown: How does that then interact with our FERC licenses and does our FERC license? 01:15:52.280 --> 01:15:53.800 SPEAKER_09: adequately 01:15:53.840 --> 01:15:57.680 SPEAKER_09: Allow us to operate in a highly climatically variable environment 01:15:58.119 --> 01:16:05.000 Unknown: Yeah, no great question. So, you know as Christine highlighted, you know as we've seen that variability year in year out 01:16:05.480 --> 01:16:08.800 SPEAKER_04: Really what was constant is at the end of our water year, right? 01:16:08.800 --> 01:16:14.400 SPEAKER_04: That reservoir level and really managing to the unknown of what the next year has in store for us 01:16:14.400 --> 01:16:20.720 SPEAKER_04: So it's really I would say those continued diligence and really best practice to manage our reservoir levels 01:16:20.880 --> 01:16:26.000 SPEAKER_04: But but to your point within our FERC license today one of the bullets on here talks about 01:16:26.600 --> 01:16:28.280 SPEAKER_04: reservoir management 01:16:28.280 --> 01:16:30.079 SPEAKER_04: abnormal 01:16:30.079 --> 01:16:36.600 SPEAKER_04: precipitation patterns and that really gives us a flexibility to manage our reservoir levels today with our 01:16:37.440 --> 01:16:43.159 SPEAKER_04: Existing FERC license to be able to manage that reservoir level and we do see these abnormally low seasons 01:16:43.760 --> 01:16:50.199 SPEAKER_04: And so as we talk about flexibility we talk about right the takeaway tonight is more extreme variability, right? 01:16:50.199 --> 01:16:55.880 SPEAKER_04: We could all appreciate that but as we talk about how do we mitigate that it's with more extreme 01:16:56.079 --> 01:17:03.639 SPEAKER_04: Right flexibility and in terms of our units in terms of our FERC license in terms of our reservoir and the capacity there 01:17:03.679 --> 01:17:09.179 SPEAKER_04: So as we look at long term, these are quite frankly items. We are very focused on right? 01:17:09.179 --> 01:17:15.800 SPEAKER_04: So it's not only the dry years but it's also the extremely wet years and how we manage that risk from a dam safety perspective 01:17:15.960 --> 01:17:23.600 SPEAKER_04: So today we're looking at feasibility studies to potentially even elevate the the level of our reservoir Union Valley 01:17:23.920 --> 01:17:26.500 SPEAKER_04: To have additional capacity 01:17:26.500 --> 01:17:33.239 SPEAKER_04: So that's one mechanism that helps us with the low snowpack years to actually accumulate more of that in a shorter 01:17:33.520 --> 01:17:35.739 SPEAKER_04: Window and preserve that for the summer months 01:17:36.079 --> 01:17:40.440 SPEAKER_04: You know I was talking to director Fishman a little bit before the meeting today even looking at the future 01:17:40.440 --> 01:17:43.600 SPEAKER_04: We see our winter peaking growing faster than our summer peaking 01:17:43.600 --> 01:17:45.600 SPEAKER_04: So as we look out over the next coming decades 01:17:46.160 --> 01:17:53.360 SPEAKER_04: Perhaps even the way we utilize our you are peanuts and the time at when we generate might shift to the winter months where we 01:17:53.360 --> 01:17:54.400 SPEAKER_04: See more of that inflow 01:17:54.400 --> 01:18:01.000 SPEAKER_04: So there might be some tell ones there that actually align with the way we would operate these units in the future 01:18:01.200 --> 01:18:05.280 SPEAKER_04: So, you know as I talked about even managing, you know heavy wet years 01:18:05.280 --> 01:18:12.280 SPEAKER_04: How do we also look at it from a dam safety perspective and we look at forecast informed reservoir operations? 01:18:12.279 --> 01:18:16.000 SPEAKER_04: Were we have higher confidence in shorter forecast windows? 01:18:16.000 --> 01:18:21.960 SPEAKER_04: We can make informed decisions in the short term either to release more water or to hold more water in our reservoir 01:18:22.039 --> 01:18:29.199 SPEAKER_04: You know, we're looking at strategic partnerships to potentially install additional tunnels at Union Valley. This would allow us in very 01:18:30.119 --> 01:18:32.559 SPEAKER_04: you know short amount of time to actually 01:18:33.199 --> 01:18:41.479 SPEAKER_04: Remove more water from the reservoir if we see, you know from a forecast perspective a very significant rain event happening or perhaps 01:18:41.479 --> 01:18:46.639 SPEAKER_04: You know pun intended a perfect storm where we have a decent snowpack and we see an extreme quick 01:18:47.359 --> 01:18:53.479 SPEAKER_04: Warming weather and then water on the horizon where we might get an extreme inflow into our reservoirs. How do we manage that? 01:18:53.479 --> 01:18:58.879 SPEAKER_04: So it's with additional tunnels. We're looking at some of those projects. We're looking at an additional powerhouse 01:18:59.359 --> 01:19:06.399 SPEAKER_04: To leverage that energy if we do install that again, these are long terms, you know beyond a decade, but we're studying these now 01:19:07.000 --> 01:19:12.079 SPEAKER_04: The other component to to manage kind of this these low water years is pumpback storage, right? 01:19:12.079 --> 01:19:14.579 SPEAKER_04: That's been something smut has evaluated in the past 01:19:14.759 --> 01:19:21.319 SPEAKER_04: We continue to look at projects like that that may provide benefit in the future as we see more of these extreme 01:19:21.519 --> 01:19:26.920 SPEAKER_04: Variabilities so we continue to kind of look at all of these type of projects again to increase 01:19:27.599 --> 01:19:30.960 SPEAKER_04: Flexibility and to manage this fair ability better into the future. I 01:19:30.960 --> 01:19:34.960 SPEAKER_04: Think one of the other key themes is you know 01:19:35.600 --> 01:19:39.480 SPEAKER_04: Partnerships right as we think about partnerships. How do we continue to? 01:19:40.079 --> 01:19:47.279 SPEAKER_04: Not only fund but support higher fidelity models that we have higher confidence in that we can make decisions in the short term 01:19:47.319 --> 01:19:53.239 SPEAKER_04: To again either hold water back or to release water and to generate at different parts of our annual season 01:19:53.239 --> 01:20:00.680 SPEAKER_04: So that's a critical component. But in addition, you know as we continue this is plan execute measure correct these endeavors continue 01:20:00.680 --> 01:20:04.320 SPEAKER_04: They never really end. So as we continue to look at the future, you know 01:20:04.320 --> 01:20:09.600 SPEAKER_04: Some additional research research questions and opportunities we continue to look at tonight 01:20:09.600 --> 01:20:11.600 SPEAKER_04: We talked a lot about the forecast 01:20:11.600 --> 01:20:19.039 SPEAKER_04: Informed reservoir operations will continue to look at those opportunities and how we might leverage those in the future as we become more 01:20:19.039 --> 01:20:22.560 SPEAKER_04: Confident in some of the short-term weather forecasts and models 01:20:23.360 --> 01:20:27.400 SPEAKER_04: Again with these extreme storms as we talk about, you know 01:20:27.519 --> 01:20:31.920 SPEAKER_04: Generally speaking one of the largest risks to all utilities in the West is wildfire risk 01:20:32.079 --> 01:20:39.119 SPEAKER_04: So as we continue to look at warming temperatures and in in and around the you are what that does to the energy release 01:20:39.319 --> 01:20:43.420 SPEAKER_04: Component of the fuel we talked about drying fuel that increases risk of wildfire 01:20:44.119 --> 01:20:50.920 SPEAKER_04: Continue to look at our practices around veg management. We do an excellent job today, but as conditions continue to change 01:20:51.480 --> 01:20:55.000 SPEAKER_04: What might those changes in our practices be in the future? 01:20:55.119 --> 01:21:02.319 SPEAKER_04: But as we think about general warming around our you are right even looking at from the perspective of what could be the impact to 01:21:02.520 --> 01:21:07.859 SPEAKER_04: Just the vegetation what could be the impact to the natural carbon sequestration we have there 01:21:07.859 --> 01:21:12.760 SPEAKER_04: What could be the impact of water storage and runoff and how quickly that occurs? 01:21:12.760 --> 01:21:20.399 SPEAKER_04: So these are our items were continuing to look at and I think as we think about kind of the weather community the forecasting community 01:21:20.399 --> 01:21:22.399 SPEAKER_04: also continuing to look at 01:21:22.679 --> 01:21:30.159 SPEAKER_04: Advancements and best available technology in terms of weather modeling in terms of instrumentation in and around our Europe you are facets 01:21:30.159 --> 01:21:31.339 SPEAKER_04: We have quite a bit today 01:21:31.339 --> 01:21:37.679 SPEAKER_04: But as we look at the future are there better instruments are there different types or different locations where we can monitor to get 01:21:37.719 --> 01:21:41.019 SPEAKER_04: Higher fidelity input into you know our future forecast 01:21:41.019 --> 01:21:47.379 SPEAKER_04: So I think I'll in there by just congratulating and thanking the team again. This is 01:21:48.100 --> 01:21:50.539 SPEAKER_04: Really an endeavor that continues every year 01:21:51.060 --> 01:21:56.140 SPEAKER_04: Appreciate the collaboration with our industry partners and experts and sharing their knowledge tonight 01:21:56.140 --> 01:21:58.980 SPEAKER_04: And happy to answer any any questions if there are any 01:21:59.619 --> 01:22:01.619 SPEAKER_04: Do we have any other? 01:22:03.260 --> 01:22:08.859 Unknown: Press this word to doing a prediction in gigawatt hour production, and how it might decline 01:22:10.980 --> 01:22:12.980 SPEAKER_09: But the building is going to be a huge 01:22:13.220 --> 01:22:14.859 SPEAKER_09: range 01:22:14.899 --> 01:22:17.460 SPEAKER_04: Yeah, you know I would just say today 01:22:17.819 --> 01:22:23.579 SPEAKER_04: We we do see that variability even in the last five years. We've seen two and a half gigawatts 01:22:23.579 --> 01:22:26.099 SPEAKER_04: We've seen as low as half a gigawatt 01:22:26.099 --> 01:22:30.859 SPEAKER_04: So we see that extreme variability today and again a lot of that's to you know 01:22:31.259 --> 01:22:37.539 SPEAKER_04: Manage our reservoir levels for the next season, but I think that's where the the hydro stabilization fund really 01:22:37.699 --> 01:22:43.859 SPEAKER_04: You know supports how we manage that variability in terms of kind of that commercial side and commodity management 01:22:44.179 --> 01:22:49.139 SPEAKER_04: But certainly you know that's something we continue to look at and how we would manage that variability 01:22:51.619 --> 01:22:56.219 Unknown: Yes, go ahead director Fisher Josh one of the first major votes 01:22:56.219 --> 01:23:01.819 SPEAKER_05: I had to take when I first got on the board was on Iowa Hill the pump storage 01:23:02.259 --> 01:23:10.059 SPEAKER_05: Project and I suspect I suspect that that was probably the right decision from a financial standpoint to kill the project 01:23:10.940 --> 01:23:15.480 Unknown: But from an operational standpoint it would be a pretty nice asset to have right now 01:23:16.140 --> 01:23:21.160 Unknown: Yeah, I would concur with that right just in terms of talking about flexibility, right? 01:23:21.160 --> 01:23:27.539 SPEAKER_04: It certainly provides additional flexibility to manage this variability and in that reason alone absolutely 01:23:28.660 --> 01:23:34.980 Unknown: But it again it was I mean the cost was over a billion and and and going up and 01:23:35.699 --> 01:23:39.419 SPEAKER_05: I'm you know, I mean even even given what we know now and based on this 01:23:39.819 --> 01:23:44.699 Unknown: I'm not sure it would have penciled out but from an operational standpoint would have been pretty cool 01:23:44.699 --> 01:23:49.619 SPEAKER_05: Yeah, and that's really kind of that next phase of our continued research 01:23:49.699 --> 01:23:56.739 SPEAKER_04: Right is looking at the feasibility and really the payback of future pump storage kind of looking at the future environment 01:23:56.899 --> 01:24:01.339 SPEAKER_04: What is that economic value and is it there to justify the investment? 01:24:01.460 --> 01:24:03.460 Unknown: Well 01:24:03.739 --> 01:24:09.380 Unknown: Thank you Josh and thank you to your team. Oh my gosh, there's another person. Yes 01:24:10.579 --> 01:24:12.579 Unknown: quick question on 01:24:12.579 --> 01:24:19.480 SPEAKER_03: Dredging I know several lakes to the north of the highway 80 have had some good success dredging the smaller lakes 01:24:19.480 --> 01:24:25.420 SPEAKER_03: I'm just wondering if we're also considering something like that. Yeah, we absolutely are, you know, just 01:24:25.420 --> 01:24:33.779 SPEAKER_04: Maybe I'll say some of the initial studies we've done doesn't show a huge benefit to dredging in terms of adding additional 01:24:34.220 --> 01:24:40.659 SPEAKER_04: Capacity but we continue to look at those options into the future, right that changes as you develop more sediment in the reservoirs 01:24:40.659 --> 01:24:45.159 SPEAKER_04: And we've also looked at you know, what are more economical and ecological ways 01:24:45.159 --> 01:24:49.840 SPEAKER_04: We could actually use that material that we dredge to kind of support the local environment 01:24:49.860 --> 01:24:56.380 SPEAKER_04: So we continue to look at those multi-benefit type of projects with dredging and we continue to look at it. Okay. No, thanks 01:24:56.380 --> 01:25:00.400 SPEAKER_03: Just wanted to be sure and make sure we maintain the rights to the goal 01:25:04.100 --> 01:25:09.579 Unknown: Thank You director kirth we do have a speaker on this item and 01:25:10.220 --> 01:25:17.819 SPEAKER_13: So I would like to call David Wright up to the podium and just remind you 01:25:18.179 --> 01:25:22.880 SPEAKER_13: To speak into to speak into the microphone, but don't touch it 01:25:24.000 --> 01:25:28.319 SPEAKER_13: and we need for you to state your name for the record and 01:25:30.279 --> 01:25:32.279 Unknown: There you go welcome 01:25:33.799 --> 01:25:38.279 Unknown: Thank You director Herbert and the rest of the committee and the members of the board 01:25:40.319 --> 01:25:43.960 Unknown: And thank dr. Aniston and dr. Daugherty and 01:25:44.460 --> 01:25:48.659 Unknown: Ms. Gianini for the wonderful presentations 01:25:49.779 --> 01:25:51.779 SPEAKER_06: I 01:25:51.819 --> 01:25:53.819 SPEAKER_06: I think 01:25:54.500 --> 01:25:56.579 Unknown: Maybe they buried the lead though 01:25:57.500 --> 01:26:01.420 SPEAKER_06: Because it seems to me that the bottom line here is that on average 01:26:02.020 --> 01:26:05.220 SPEAKER_06: Smud will not be able to produce as much hydropower 01:26:06.020 --> 01:26:08.460 Unknown: Over the coming years as it has in the past 01:26:09.539 --> 01:26:10.659 Unknown: because 01:26:10.659 --> 01:26:13.220 SPEAKER_06: You're losing that snowpack reservoir 01:26:14.920 --> 01:26:19.220 Unknown: As Gianini said snowpack is pivotal it is our largest reservoir 01:26:20.020 --> 01:26:24.340 Unknown: so without that snowpack reservoir all you 01:26:24.819 --> 01:26:26.819 SPEAKER_06: Most of what you're getting is rainfall 01:26:27.380 --> 01:26:30.579 Unknown: You have to be careful about extreme rainfall events 01:26:30.579 --> 01:26:37.500 SPEAKER_06: I think most of your public doesn't realize this but dams are not in California are not really big enough 01:26:37.840 --> 01:26:44.039 Unknown: To hold all the water that can come down the the water shed in an extreme rainfall event 01:26:44.100 --> 01:26:50.560 SPEAKER_06: So you have the risk of overtopping a dam, you know more waters coming in that goes out. So 01:26:51.119 --> 01:26:53.119 SPEAKER_06: We don't want another Oroville 01:26:54.119 --> 01:26:59.800 Unknown: You have to err on the side of safety and that restricts the amount that you can use rainfall 01:27:01.640 --> 01:27:04.380 Unknown: And storage so 01:27:05.279 --> 01:27:11.159 SPEAKER_06: Smud is going to need more flexibility to adjust to 01:27:14.279 --> 01:27:19.319 Unknown: It what should become increasingly precise and accurate storm 01:27:20.039 --> 01:27:25.960 SPEAKER_06: Temperature rain and snow forecasts. I think our models of weather are getting better and better 01:27:26.800 --> 01:27:31.039 SPEAKER_06: And so if there are ways that Smud can adjust 01:27:31.840 --> 01:27:33.840 SPEAKER_06: quickly to those 01:27:34.340 --> 01:27:39.900 SPEAKER_06: Forecasts that will be useful in in saving as much rainfall as possible 01:27:41.340 --> 01:27:44.860 Unknown: But on average I think that and I'd love to hear differently 01:27:45.140 --> 01:27:49.699 SPEAKER_06: But I think that Smud will have to plan for on average having less hydro 01:27:49.980 --> 01:27:53.539 Unknown: So my question would be how will the zero carbon goals? 01:27:54.460 --> 01:28:01.039 SPEAKER_06: Be affected power the plans be altered in the face of that change. Thank you 01:28:02.019 --> 01:28:04.019 Unknown: Thank you very much David 01:28:04.619 --> 01:28:11.819 SPEAKER_13: Chief legal officer have we received any request to speak on item number one? Yes from John 01:28:13.340 --> 01:28:15.060 Unknown: Okay 01:28:15.060 --> 01:28:17.220 Unknown: So John you're next 01:28:19.039 --> 01:28:21.399 Unknown: Hello, can you hear me? Yes, we can 01:28:22.100 --> 01:28:28.060 Unknown: Good evening chair board and committee. I just want to say those were some outstanding 01:28:28.060 --> 01:28:33.480 SPEAKER_11: presentations and I was just wondering is it possible to 01:28:33.920 --> 01:28:39.840 SPEAKER_11: Install floating solar on a portion of any of our reservoirs to reduce 01:28:40.520 --> 01:28:44.720 SPEAKER_11: Evaporation as well as to produce electricity. Thank you 01:28:47.280 --> 01:28:49.280 Unknown: Thank you and 01:28:49.560 --> 01:28:51.560 SPEAKER_13: I'll turn to our 01:28:51.560 --> 01:28:56.600 SPEAKER_13: General manager, do you have an answer for that question? 01:28:56.600 --> 01:29:02.440 SPEAKER_13: I'm imagining we've we study that sort of thing Paul if you don't mind I think it addresses 01:29:02.600 --> 01:29:06.220 SPEAKER_04: So actually Quince an alley just a week and a half ago 01:29:06.220 --> 01:29:11.440 SPEAKER_04: We met with a vendor who has this technology deployed on reservoirs in Europe 01:29:11.440 --> 01:29:16.240 SPEAKER_04: So we are looking at the feasibility of this for our reservoirs namely Union Valley 01:29:16.880 --> 01:29:22.760 SPEAKER_04: So at this point we're working through term sheets if you will to just understand the economics of it 01:29:23.239 --> 01:29:30.239 SPEAKER_04: Will it kind of pencil out relative to other renewable assets we have and and does it actually provide that? 01:29:30.679 --> 01:29:36.479 SPEAKER_04: Much benefit in terms of evaporation rates and helping retain, you know, some of the the reservoir level 01:29:36.479 --> 01:29:39.119 SPEAKER_04: So we're actively looking at that as you would imagine 01:29:39.760 --> 01:29:45.599 SPEAKER_04: As well as many other types of resources, especially as we enter into our integrated resource plan 01:29:47.079 --> 01:29:49.079 SPEAKER_13: Wonderful Josh, thank you and 01:29:49.800 --> 01:29:52.880 SPEAKER_13: Thank you John for the question 01:29:53.519 --> 01:29:58.960 SPEAKER_13: the next item on the agenda is public comment for items not on the agenda and 01:29:59.960 --> 01:30:02.960 SPEAKER_13: We do have another comment card 01:30:03.920 --> 01:30:10.000 SPEAKER_13: David Wright, please come forward. Please speak into the microphone. Don't touch it and 01:30:10.840 --> 01:30:12.840 SPEAKER_13: State your name for the record 01:30:13.199 --> 01:30:15.199 Unknown: Hi, my name is David Wright 01:30:15.639 --> 01:30:19.559 Unknown: I'm representing 350 Sacramento 01:30:21.119 --> 01:30:24.199 Unknown: We are concerned about data centers 01:30:25.159 --> 01:30:26.319 Unknown: there 01:30:26.319 --> 01:30:29.519 SPEAKER_06: We've just learned about a data center 01:30:30.359 --> 01:30:35.039 Unknown: At McClellan or near McClellan called prime data center 26 megawatts 01:30:36.439 --> 01:30:38.439 SPEAKER_06: Which is not tiny 01:30:38.559 --> 01:30:41.239 SPEAKER_06: Although there are much bigger data centers 01:30:41.960 --> 01:30:44.920 SPEAKER_06: In the works elsewhere around the country 01:30:47.199 --> 01:30:49.719 Unknown: So many questions about this 01:30:50.920 --> 01:30:54.019 Unknown: Not that I know everything about what happens with smud but 01:30:55.000 --> 01:30:58.039 Unknown: Why is this kind of thing not more well known? 01:30:59.119 --> 01:31:01.719 Unknown: What does this do to those your carbon plan? 01:31:03.319 --> 01:31:07.359 Unknown: What do your customer owners get to say about such things? 01:31:08.559 --> 01:31:10.559 SPEAKER_06: such big 01:31:10.680 --> 01:31:16.360 Unknown: giant consumption of electricity and and burden on the zero carbon plan 01:31:17.240 --> 01:31:21.520 Unknown: Does smud even have discretion and you know in the case of other? 01:31:23.560 --> 01:31:25.560 Unknown: Data centers like this 01:31:25.840 --> 01:31:32.800 Unknown: Or even bigger ones would you have the ability to say no and if not can you gain the ability to say no? 01:31:33.039 --> 01:31:35.039 SPEAKER_06: So 01:31:35.600 --> 01:31:43.320 Unknown: This is going to be a large future future issue, and we'd certainly like to hear more about this kind of thing publicly. Thank you 01:31:45.279 --> 01:31:49.320 Unknown: Thank you very much for your comments, I want you to know that 01:31:50.320 --> 01:31:54.279 SPEAKER_13: The smud board is actively looking at this we had a 01:31:55.239 --> 01:31:57.239 SPEAKER_13: you know a session about 01:31:58.039 --> 01:32:01.480 SPEAKER_13: AI development and loads coming and 01:32:02.359 --> 01:32:08.879 SPEAKER_13: So our staff is working on this in the sense that we want to develop a process 01:32:09.759 --> 01:32:11.239 SPEAKER_13: where 01:32:11.239 --> 01:32:16.639 SPEAKER_13: You know we have the ability to make sure that they're paying for their 01:32:18.199 --> 01:32:20.759 SPEAKER_13: The facilities that will serve them 01:32:22.319 --> 01:32:24.319 SPEAKER_13: It is true that we haven't 01:32:25.000 --> 01:32:28.159 SPEAKER_13: And I can't say a whole lot. I can see our lawyer 01:32:28.720 --> 01:32:30.720 SPEAKER_13: You know like this is not on the agenda 01:32:30.920 --> 01:32:38.519 SPEAKER_13: So I I'm just saying that we will have another meeting coming up where we will be talking about 01:32:40.319 --> 01:32:43.639 SPEAKER_13: Data centers and how smud will 01:32:44.639 --> 01:32:52.239 SPEAKER_13: Be dealing with them, but I can tell you everybody on this board is very much aware of things that are happening and 01:32:52.800 --> 01:32:57.279 SPEAKER_13: We are not going to let big companies come into our service territory 01:32:57.399 --> 01:33:02.519 SPEAKER_13: And you know take our low rates and make us pay for their infrastructure 01:33:03.279 --> 01:33:06.159 SPEAKER_13: So I've probably said too much 01:33:06.840 --> 01:33:11.639 SPEAKER_13: And so I'm just going to go ahead and say that written comments 01:33:12.319 --> 01:33:20.039 SPEAKER_13: Received on items not on the agenda will be included in the record if they're received within two hours of the end of the meeting 01:33:20.039 --> 01:33:26.279 SPEAKER_13: And the last item on the agenda is to provide a summary of committee direction 01:33:27.279 --> 01:33:28.960 Unknown: I don't have anything 01:33:28.960 --> 01:33:33.119 Unknown: Okay, well then with that this meeting is concluded